Dus hoe hoger de resolutie des te beter de weerkaarten
Bericht van: sebastiaan (bussum) , 21-01-2012 13:22
Zie dat maar eens te weerleggen 
Ik vond nog dit aardige bericht
It doesn't matter how many ensemble members back an easterly, even if you have a majority going with it at 192hrs. Easterlies come about differently, in this case its one of the more complicated ones.
Energy distribution ie where this goes, north or south is better served by the operational runs because of their higher resolution, the lower resolution of the ensembles are poor at handling this juggling act.
Even if you see unanimous support for an easterly at 144hrs, ignore them because in this case its a trough splitting this is even more liable to go wrong, the top ranked easterly forecasting nightmare is a shortwave dropping into the Low Countries area, that would be more prone to go wrong.
Unfortunately the less stressful scenario of trough sinking intact looks off the menu and we're left with the trough split.
The ensembles in this instance will be all over the place and generally will veer one way and another.
The time to worry is if the operational run drops the easterly at closer range, at that point its often game over no matter how good the support is from the ensembles.
Ik vond nog dit aardige bericht
It doesn't matter how many ensemble members back an easterly, even if you have a majority going with it at 192hrs. Easterlies come about differently, in this case its one of the more complicated ones.
Energy distribution ie where this goes, north or south is better served by the operational runs because of their higher resolution, the lower resolution of the ensembles are poor at handling this juggling act.
Even if you see unanimous support for an easterly at 144hrs, ignore them because in this case its a trough splitting this is even more liable to go wrong, the top ranked easterly forecasting nightmare is a shortwave dropping into the Low Countries area, that would be more prone to go wrong.
Unfortunately the less stressful scenario of trough sinking intact looks off the menu and we're left with the trough split.
The ensembles in this instance will be all over the place and generally will veer one way and another.
The time to worry is if the operational run drops the easterly at closer range, at that point its often game over no matter how good the support is from the ensembles.
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 21-01-2012 13:25
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