In deze conclusie gerechtvaardigd van deze poster ? Het schijnt dat er extra informatie voor de GFS gebruikt is. Blijkbaar niet beschikbaar voor EC?
Even NOAA in the USA can't keep up with the model changes, having earlier dumped the GFS/GEFS for the 00hrs runs they've had second thoughts, they've now dumped the ECM 00hrs run after viewing further data. They've now gone for a GFS/UKMO combo till Friday and after that the GFS 00hrs run.
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72301-model-output-discussion-12z-21st-january/page__st__260__p__2218909#entry2218909
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
914 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2012
VALID 12Z THU JAN 26 2012 - 12Z SUN JAN 29 2012
INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC THIS WEEK SHOULD ALLOW FOR MEAN TROUGHING TO STICK AROUND OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST UNDER A PORTION OF THE POLAR VORTEX DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL CANADA NEXT
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS IDEA...BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE LARGE ISSUES.
THE 00Z GFS/00Z GEFS MEAN MORE AGGRESSIVELY KNOCK DOWN THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WRN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC BY FRI THAN OTHER GUIDANCE..WHICH ALLOWS A QUICKER FRONTAL PROGRESSION IN THE EAST.
THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER MID-CONTINENT FAVORS GRADUAL WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE WEAKENING. THE OTHER BIG ISSUE IS HOW TO HANDLE THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW NEAR TEXAS WED. 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE NOW THE QUICKEST OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE 00Z GEFS MEAN/NOGAPS ARE THE SLOWEST. FORECAST SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM IS SIGNIFICANT...WITH SOLUTIONS RANGING BETWEEN NRN MEXICO AND THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF NRN STREAM
INTERACTION. THE 00Z GFS/UKMET AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE
THE 00Z CANADIAN AND 06Z GFS/DGEX ARE ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE...BUT NOT AS SLOW AS THE MOST EXTREME CUTOFF SOLUTIONS. CLOSED LOWS IN A SEPARATED SRN STREAM TEND TO REMAIN
ON THE SLOW SIDE SO WILL DISCOUNT THE 00Z ECMWF THAT ALSO OFFERS POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. UNCERTAINTY THOUGH PROBABLY MAKES IT PRUDENT TO NOT GO WITH THE SLOWEST GEFS ENSEMBLES/NOGAPS.
ACCORDINGLY...UPDATED HPC PRELIM PROGS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/UKMET DAYS 3-5 WED-FRI BEFORE LEANING ON THE 00Z GFS NEXT WEEKEND...ALBEIT WITH LESS PRONOUNCED
EAST COAST/WRN ATLANTIC CYCLOGENSIS CONSIDERING UNCERTAIN SUPPORT ALOFT. DATA FROM 16 DROPSONDES WERE AVAILABLE FOR THIS GFS CYCLE FROM THE WSR PACIFIC RECON PROJECT.
ROTH/SCHICHTEL
Quote selectie