Edit, in hoofdlijnen vertaald
http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/cms/get/ecmwfnews/1322670322625
&
http://www.ecmwf.int/research/monthly_forecasting/Documentation.html
Vertaling in hoofdlijnen.
A second weekly run of the ECMWF monthly forecast has been introduced, running every Monday (00 UTC) to provide an update to the main Thursday run. Products are provided to the ECMWF Member and Co-operating States and to commercial users. The monthly forecasts are an integral part of the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) and provide outlooks up to 32 days ahead.
Twee maal per week wordt de maandelijkse verwachtingen gepresenteerd. Iedere maand en donderdag. Beschikbaar voor lokale ´KNMI´s en commerciele gebruikers. Deze maandelijkse vooruitzichten zijn onderdeel van EPS en bieden tot 32 dagen vooruitzichten. (vandaar EC32!)
ECMWF uses its expertise in numerical modelling and data assimilation to produce some of the best available numerical predictions of intra-seasonal weather. An important source of predictability over Europe in the 10-30 day range is believed to originate in the tropics, from the so-called Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is a 40-50 day oscillation in tropical convection. The EPS monthly forecast displays strong skill in predicting the evolution of the MJO up to 3-4 weeks in advance.
Er wordt gesteld dat het weer boven Europa te maken heeft met de ontwikkelingen in de tropen (zie ook bijdrages van Stewart daarover), van de zogenaamde MJO. MJO wordt bepaald.
The ECMWF monthly forecasts are extensions of the medium-range forecasts from the EPS and are produced using persisted sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies until day 10 and SSTs predicted by an ocean model from day 10 onwards. The resulting forecast products are based on a combination of two components:
O.a. wordt zeewaterafwijkingen gebruikt
The real-time forecasts issued every Thursday and Monday: an ensemble of 51 members, with a horizontal resolution of about 60 km.
A set of re-forecasts: integrations from start dates at the same time of year for the past 18 years, made with the current forecast model, providing a model climatology that is used to calibrate the real-time forecasts. Specific re-forecasts are not produced for the Monday run. Instead, a combination of two sets of the Thursday re-forecasts, for the previous Thursday and the following Thursday, is used in the generation of the weekly-mean forecast anomalies.
Er wordt gekeken ook naar het verleden, wat het model dan zou hebben laten zien. Waarschijnlijk bedoelt om de verwachtingsgraad te verhogen.
The raw numerical data and graphical outputs from the EPS monthly forecasts are available to the national meteorological services of the ECMWF Member States and Co-operating States and to commercial users, who use the information to produce forecast statements or products targeted at the general public and other user groups, such as governmental authorities or the energy sector.
http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/cms/get/ecmwfnews/1322670322625
&
http://www.ecmwf.int/research/monthly_forecasting/Documentation.html
Vertaling in hoofdlijnen.
A second weekly run of the ECMWF monthly forecast has been introduced, running every Monday (00 UTC) to provide an update to the main Thursday run. Products are provided to the ECMWF Member and Co-operating States and to commercial users. The monthly forecasts are an integral part of the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) and provide outlooks up to 32 days ahead.
Twee maal per week wordt de maandelijkse verwachtingen gepresenteerd. Iedere maand en donderdag. Beschikbaar voor lokale ´KNMI´s en commerciele gebruikers. Deze maandelijkse vooruitzichten zijn onderdeel van EPS en bieden tot 32 dagen vooruitzichten. (vandaar EC32!)
ECMWF uses its expertise in numerical modelling and data assimilation to produce some of the best available numerical predictions of intra-seasonal weather. An important source of predictability over Europe in the 10-30 day range is believed to originate in the tropics, from the so-called Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is a 40-50 day oscillation in tropical convection. The EPS monthly forecast displays strong skill in predicting the evolution of the MJO up to 3-4 weeks in advance.
Er wordt gesteld dat het weer boven Europa te maken heeft met de ontwikkelingen in de tropen (zie ook bijdrages van Stewart daarover), van de zogenaamde MJO. MJO wordt bepaald.
The ECMWF monthly forecasts are extensions of the medium-range forecasts from the EPS and are produced using persisted sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies until day 10 and SSTs predicted by an ocean model from day 10 onwards. The resulting forecast products are based on a combination of two components:
O.a. wordt zeewaterafwijkingen gebruikt
The real-time forecasts issued every Thursday and Monday: an ensemble of 51 members, with a horizontal resolution of about 60 km.
A set of re-forecasts: integrations from start dates at the same time of year for the past 18 years, made with the current forecast model, providing a model climatology that is used to calibrate the real-time forecasts. Specific re-forecasts are not produced for the Monday run. Instead, a combination of two sets of the Thursday re-forecasts, for the previous Thursday and the following Thursday, is used in the generation of the weekly-mean forecast anomalies.
Er wordt gekeken ook naar het verleden, wat het model dan zou hebben laten zien. Waarschijnlijk bedoelt om de verwachtingsgraad te verhogen.
The raw numerical data and graphical outputs from the EPS monthly forecasts are available to the national meteorological services of the ECMWF Member States and Co-operating States and to commercial users, who use the information to produce forecast statements or products targeted at the general public and other user groups, such as governmental authorities or the energy sector.
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 24-01-2012 13:25
„Et nul ne se connait tant qu'il n'a pas souffert, „C'est une dure loi, mais une loi suprème, „Vieille comme le monde et la fatalité, „Qu'l nous faut du malheur regevoir le baptéme, ~Et qu'a ce triste prix tout doit étre acheté. „Les moissons pour murir out besoin de rosée, „Pour vivre et pour sentir l'homme a besoin de pleura, „La joie a pour symbole une plante brisée, „Humide encore de pluie et couverte de fleurs."
