http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72352-model-output-discussion-06z-27th-january/page__st__740__p__2226751#entry2226751
Het blok gaat volgens deze kaart (NOAA handgemaakt)voorlopig niet weg. Betreft dan de tweede kaart die hieronder staat. De eerste kaart is een overzicht van zowel EC (links) als GFS (rechts) van de afwijking op hoogte.
Meer dan gemiddeld vertrouwen in de langere termijn.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EST FRI JANUARY 27 2012
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 02 - 06 2012
RECENT ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WESTERN ALASKA, WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT TROUGH ENERGY WILL START TO
UNDERCUT THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE MOST RECENT OPERATIONAL
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE IN FARILY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS,
ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN
CIRCULATON FEATURES.
THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS GENERALLY INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS, EASTERN PACIFIC, AND NORTHEAST ATLANTIC. THE AO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS
BEEN NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAKLY NEGATIVE THROUGH DAY 14, ALTHOUGH
THE SPREAD AMONG INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS RELATIVELY LARGE. THE PNA
INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN CLOSE TO ZERO IS FORECAST TO BECOME POSITIVE BY
DAY 7 AND REMAIN POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 14. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA,
AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER NORTHERN MAINE AND THE WESTERN
THREE-QUARTERS OF THE CONUS.
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS LEAD TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA LEADS
TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
PART OF THE STATE AND THE ALEUTIANS. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW LEADS TO ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE
ALASKAN PANHANDLE.
THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE
TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST LEADS TO ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY
FLOW FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF EASTERN ALASKA AND THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE. ANOMALOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES
FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIIATION OVER NORTHERN ALASKA.
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8...30
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S
12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAYS 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 04 - 10 2012
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE WEEK 2 CIRCULATION PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. RECENT
OPERATIONAL GFS FORECASTS ARE BASICALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLE MEANS ALTHOUGH AS USUAL, THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE
RELATIVELY LOW SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WESTERN CONUS, AND NORTHEAST ATLANTIC.
TODAYS WEEK 2 BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN THREE-QUARTERS OF THE CONUS AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE, AND NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AND THE REMAINDER OF
ALASKA.
THE FAVORED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE
MOSTLY SIMILAR TO THOSE ANTICIPATED DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, ALTHOUGH AS THE
EASTERN TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY DURING WEEK 2, A COOLER AND DRIER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE EAST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF
YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 5 PERCENT OF
YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1 TO 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND TOOLS IN AN
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN.
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72352-model-output-discussion-06z-27th-january/page__st__740__p__2226751#entry2226751
Het blok gaat volgens deze kaart (NOAA handgemaakt)voorlopig niet weg. Betreft dan de tweede kaart die hieronder staat. De eerste kaart is een overzicht van zowel EC (links) als GFS (rechts) van de afwijking op hoogte.
Meer dan gemiddeld vertrouwen in de langere termijn.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EST FRI JANUARY 27 2012
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 02 - 06 2012
RECENT ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WESTERN ALASKA, WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT TROUGH ENERGY WILL START TO
UNDERCUT THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE MOST RECENT OPERATIONAL
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE IN FARILY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS,
ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN
CIRCULATON FEATURES.
THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS GENERALLY INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS, EASTERN PACIFIC, AND NORTHEAST ATLANTIC. THE AO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS
BEEN NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAKLY NEGATIVE THROUGH DAY 14, ALTHOUGH
THE SPREAD AMONG INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS RELATIVELY LARGE. THE PNA
INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN CLOSE TO ZERO IS FORECAST TO BECOME POSITIVE BY
DAY 7 AND REMAIN POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 14. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA,
AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER NORTHERN MAINE AND THE WESTERN
THREE-QUARTERS OF THE CONUS.
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS LEAD TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA LEADS
TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
PART OF THE STATE AND THE ALEUTIANS. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW LEADS TO ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE
ALASKAN PANHANDLE.
THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE
TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST LEADS TO ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY
FLOW FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF EASTERN ALASKA AND THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE. ANOMALOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES
FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIIATION OVER NORTHERN ALASKA.
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8...30
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S
12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAYS 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 04 - 10 2012
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE WEEK 2 CIRCULATION PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. RECENT
OPERATIONAL GFS FORECASTS ARE BASICALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLE MEANS ALTHOUGH AS USUAL, THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE
RELATIVELY LOW SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WESTERN CONUS, AND NORTHEAST ATLANTIC.
TODAYS WEEK 2 BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN THREE-QUARTERS OF THE CONUS AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE, AND NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AND THE REMAINDER OF
ALASKA.
THE FAVORED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE
MOSTLY SIMILAR TO THOSE ANTICIPATED DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, ALTHOUGH AS THE
EASTERN TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY DURING WEEK 2, A COOLER AND DRIER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE EAST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF
YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 5 PERCENT OF
YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1 TO 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND TOOLS IN AN
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN.
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 28-01-2012 17:30
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