Laten we vooral alles na 96u niet te serieus nemen
Excuses voor de grote letters, zo heeft NOAA het opgesteld. De avondruns geven nog steeds aan dat er weinig zekerheid is.
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72384-model-output-discussion-12z-29th-january-2012/page__st__360__p__2230429#entry2230429
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
AFTN MODEL AND ENS GUIDANCE CONTINUES UNDERMINE ANY ALREADY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY RELIABLE SOLUTION OVER MUCH OF CONUS AS GFS/UKMET/CMC/ECMWF HAVE GONE BACK TO YESTERDAYS 12Z SOLUTIONS OF LEAVING BEHIND SIGNIFICANT ENERGY IN SWRN CONUS WITH THE CMC/UKMET AND ECMWF HAVING THE STRONGEST MID LEVELS AND AT THE SFC FORMING A SFC LOW IN THE SRN PLAINS TO GLFMEX REGION THEN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLC REGIONS. GFS WHILE LEAVING BEHIND MORE OF A MID LEVEL LOW IN THAT REGION SHEARS IT OUT AND HAS THE DIGGING NRN STREAM THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS RESULTS IN A NRN STREAM SHORTWVE AND LOW REFORMING FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE NC COAST BUT SHIFTING
EWD WELL OFFSHORE. THE VERY LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY AND A GREAT WEATHER AND SOCIAL POTENTIAL IMPACT IN WHATEVER SOLUTION TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT WARRANTS A WINTER STORM PACIFIC RECON WHICH WILL BE FLOWN EARLY THIS WEEK. AFTN FINALS
WILL NOT BE CHANGED BASED ON THE RECENT 12Z RUNS. THERE IS
SIMILARITY TO YESTERDAYS 12Z RUNS WHICH QUICKLY CHANGED OVERNIGHT.
RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN
Quote selectie