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Across most of the slight risk area a slightly unstable air-mass is expected as was the case yesterday. Around 500 - 1000 J/kg of CAPE will likely form in these areas in response to diurnal heating. Scattered storms will likely form as a result, with the highest coverage over western Germany, the Low Countries, the UK part of the area and the northern half of France. As deep-layer shear increases these may well include supercells. Despite the low CAPE, these may produce isolated large hail and strong or severe winds. Given that low-level shear is expected to be around 10 m/s and LCL heights are rather low, there is also a threat of tornadoes with these storms.

During the early afternoon, strong QG upward motion will begin to affect western France. It seems likely that widespread convection will form as a result, that will quite rapidly organise into linear MCSs. Corfidi vectors and the speed of the shortwave indicate that bow echos may develop that propagate downwind at a speed of 20-25 m/s to the northeast. Severe wind gusts will likely occur in quite a number of places. A threat of tornadoes will also be present with this system. GFS (12 and 18Z) indicate, the activity will be near Britanny at 18Z, over the Low Countries at 00Z and over northern Germany at 06Z, UKMO (12Z) is approximately 3 hours faster. An upgrade to moderate risk may be given for a specific area in the path of the the convective system(s) as more thermodynamic information about the pre-storm environment becomes available.