.N France, Belgium, Luxemburg, Netherlands, Germany, N Poland, Lithuania...
GFS and Hirlam models hardly produce any precipitation apparently due to capped or very dry profiles, but both models also show some parcels have less than -50 J/kg CIN and may become isolated deep convection. Almost all CAPE simulated is in the warm airmass with high LCL and lower SREH than directly at the front, although still some 200-250 m2/s2 can reside over central/west Germany, and more than 20 m/s bulk 0-6 km shear. Large hail would then be possible in storms which develop rotating updrafts, if they indeed form at all. There is hardly any organized forcing factor for initiation. This environment is valid practically in the entire area.
After 21Z GFS produced convective precipitation in a very strong SREH and low level shear environment over N France and perhaps as far north as the Netherlands at the front, a more moist environment, and hence more supportive for tornadoes. However, convection could well be elevated instead of ground-based. Storm motion vectors indicate motion along the front (northeastward).
Eerste onweer in Frankrijk is al een feit. Opletten vandaag.
https://www.facebook.com/francois.debets.7/
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