Kon morgen nog wel eens interessant worden!
Bericht van: Piet Berger (Simpelveld) , 30-04-2012 01:35
A few storms may struggle to gain organization due to limited LL moisture/thin CAPE profiles, but any developing storm along mesoscale boundaries and over Belgium/Luxembourg and far W-Germany may see adequate support for longer lifetimes and a few supercell events are well possible. The main hazard will be large hail and strong wind gusts. However, an isolated tornado event is possible during a confined time frame, where surface based/slightly elevated storms are forecast with lowering LCLs and rapidly strengthening LL speed and directional shear...mainly between 15-21 Z.
S-UK was not added to the level 1 due to ongoing concerns of limited CAPE, as clusters of showers/embedded thunderstorms may decrease insolation/diabatic heating. A few marginal hail events are possible. If stronger diabatic heating occurs, the risk of an isolated tornado increases during the evening hours as LL shear intensifies.
During the late evening hours onwards, strengthening 850 hPa winds, aligned nearly parallel to the moisture tongue point to a somewhat enhanced risk for back-building and clustering storms mainly over Belgium and Luxembourg. Heavy rainfall will be the main hazard with storms becoming more elevated betimes.
S-UK was not added to the level 1 due to ongoing concerns of limited CAPE, as clusters of showers/embedded thunderstorms may decrease insolation/diabatic heating. A few marginal hail events are possible. If stronger diabatic heating occurs, the risk of an isolated tornado increases during the evening hours as LL shear intensifies.
During the late evening hours onwards, strengthening 850 hPa winds, aligned nearly parallel to the moisture tongue point to a somewhat enhanced risk for back-building and clustering storms mainly over Belgium and Luxembourg. Heavy rainfall will be the main hazard with storms becoming more elevated betimes.
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 30-04-2012 01:54
