Estofex komt met een level 1 voor bijna de gehele Benelux. Verder naar het oosten geeft wel meer kansen op het extreme weer..
http://estofex.org/
Northern France to north-western Germany
Rich boundary-layer moisture of 10 g/kg in the lowest km will spread north-eastward during the day. The moist air will overlap with well-mixed air masses across western, central, and northern France into northern Germany, where CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is likely (1000 J/kg across central France). Initiation is likely due to daytime heating over central and northern France in the late morning hours. Thunderstorms are forecast to move to the north-east where many clouds are likely near the frontal boundary, and low-level buoyancy will be rather limited.
Strong vertical wind shear is forecast especially from northern France to northern Germany (15-20 m/s 0-3 km bulk shear). Well-organized storms capable of producing large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes are therefore not ruled out. However, current scenario with embedded storms and weak low-level buoyancy limits the severe potential over most places. Large hail seems to be most likely over central France into western Germany, where best instability will be located and storms may be isolated.
http://estofex.org/
Northern France to north-western Germany
Rich boundary-layer moisture of 10 g/kg in the lowest km will spread north-eastward during the day. The moist air will overlap with well-mixed air masses across western, central, and northern France into northern Germany, where CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is likely (1000 J/kg across central France). Initiation is likely due to daytime heating over central and northern France in the late morning hours. Thunderstorms are forecast to move to the north-east where many clouds are likely near the frontal boundary, and low-level buoyancy will be rather limited.
Strong vertical wind shear is forecast especially from northern France to northern Germany (15-20 m/s 0-3 km bulk shear). Well-organized storms capable of producing large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes are therefore not ruled out. However, current scenario with embedded storms and weak low-level buoyancy limits the severe potential over most places. Large hail seems to be most likely over central France into western Germany, where best instability will be located and storms may be isolated.
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