Estofex Lvl 1

A level 1 was issued for the western British Isles, eastern France, the Benelux countries, western and southern Germany, the Alpine region mainly for large hail.

The western British Isles, France and north-eastern Spain, the Benelux countries, western and southern Germany, the Alpine region

Latest soundings and model data indicate rich boundary-layer moisture over a broad region that is advected southward across France. Lapse rates increasing to the north-east lead to rather strong instability. Across the Benelux countries, up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE has been observed. An elevated mixed layer will advect westward into northern France and the North Sea and England. Further south, weaker lapse rates are present, but rich low- level moisture will likely lead to CAPE during the day as well. Given a weakly-forced situation, low-level forcing like sea-breeze fronts and upslope flow will be the main sources of lift/initiation. Storms will spread along these features as well as along outflow-boundaries until the late evening hours, when storms will decay. Although the vertical wind shear is weak, pulse storms will be capable of producing large hail locally as well as excessive precipitation, especially in the northern portions. Briefly severe wind gusts are not ruled out.