Vertical wind shear is impressive beneath the jet streak, with 0-6 km shear up to 40 m/s, 0-1 km shear up to 15 m/s and a good chance for a temporary backing of the low-level wind field ahead of the trough. Showers and low-topped, weakly electrified thunderstorms are expected which will have a chance to produce severe wind gusts.
The positive tilt of the trough axis and its accordingly acute angle to the upper-level flow direction seem to be unfavourable for the concentration of convective activity into a larger comma-like feature. Instead, several strongly forced multicells are a more likely scenario, which may be able to develop short bowing segments. Those convective cells which manage to sustain a more isolated character have also an enhanced chance to produce rotating updrafts and even one or two tornadoes, considering the strong LLS and favourably veering wind profiles (SRH around 200 m^2/s^2).
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