Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 28 Jun 2012 06:00 to Fri 29 Jun 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 27 Jun 2012 22:28
Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 2 was issued for the Benelux countries mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.
SYNOPSIS
An Atlantic trough moves into western Europe pushing a ridge into central Europe. An elevated mixed layer currently across France will spread north-eastward on Thursday, and rich boundary-layer moisture is expected underneath the cap from eastern France to eastern England and the Benelux countries. Over eastern Europe, rather cool/dry air will remain.
DISCUSSION
The Benelux region
The nose of the warm low-level air will move into the Benelux countries ahead of the surface cold front. Moisture pooling and diurnal heating will result in CAPE around 2000 J/kg given the elevated mixed layer spreading northward. Additionally, strong vertical wind shear will be in place.
Favorably veering profiles and rather isolated convection in the afternoon hours pose a threat of supercells capable of producing large or very large hail and maybe a tornado. Later in the period, a linear MSC may develop ahead of the cold front. The increasing low-level jet is forecast to increase the potential of severe wind gusts with this MCS that will spread into western Germany. Excessive rain is also not ruled out.
Valid: Thu 28 Jun 2012 06:00 to Fri 29 Jun 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 27 Jun 2012 22:28
Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 2 was issued for the Benelux countries mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.
SYNOPSIS
An Atlantic trough moves into western Europe pushing a ridge into central Europe. An elevated mixed layer currently across France will spread north-eastward on Thursday, and rich boundary-layer moisture is expected underneath the cap from eastern France to eastern England and the Benelux countries. Over eastern Europe, rather cool/dry air will remain.
DISCUSSION
The Benelux region
The nose of the warm low-level air will move into the Benelux countries ahead of the surface cold front. Moisture pooling and diurnal heating will result in CAPE around 2000 J/kg given the elevated mixed layer spreading northward. Additionally, strong vertical wind shear will be in place.
Favorably veering profiles and rather isolated convection in the afternoon hours pose a threat of supercells capable of producing large or very large hail and maybe a tornado. Later in the period, a linear MSC may develop ahead of the cold front. The increasing low-level jet is forecast to increase the potential of severe wind gusts with this MCS that will spread into western Germany. Excessive rain is also not ruled out.
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 28-06-2012 00:31
