Goedemorgen, Bigorio CH, Tact 19,5, licht bewolkt, Estofex 1

... N-Italy, Slovenia, W-Hungary, far SW-Slovakia and parts of Austria ...

Placed beneath the right entrance of a 30 m/s 500 hPa jet and given moderate capping, we expect scattered thunderstorms to evolve during the early afternoon hours onwards within the highlighted area. Models disagree how far to the south initiation will occur but we see no significant reasons to go too far off the mountains. Given impressive directional and speed shear, a few well organized multicells and supercells are forecast over N-Italy, S-Austria and parts of Slovenia with large hail and severe wind gusts the main risk. An isolated very large hail event can't be ruled out next to an isolated tornado report, given strong LL shear in high resolution model data for S-Austria. The forecast becomes more uncertain over SW-Slovakia and W-Hungary, but models like WRF remain optimistic with initiation in a favorable environment for organized storms. Also, latest synop data reveal good moisture recovery, so the level 1 was expanded far eastwards. A broad upper trough and attendant forcing next to the favorable jet position assist in clustering of storms betimes with heavy rain also for areas to the north (mainly for parts of Austria).