Quite like the 00z ECM op and with some limited support from the ensemble mean as a 'blueprint' for where we go next week on.
Contextually, angular momentum is steadily rising and the GWO responding with the largest Asian mountain torque for some considerable time. That puts us towards a phase 3/4 type evolution, potentially phase 5 if we continue to see some propagation of westerly winds poleward.
Clearly, next week looks unsettled with cool and showery the order of the day as the longwave trough digs southward and begins to close off over NW Europe.
If we are heading towards a phase 3-4-5 type state (main body of tropical convection in the western Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean), should be looking for both height rises over Scandinavia (that's the interesting part as by and large this summer we've had a definate trough in place) and the ridge to our west still persisting. Hence why the ECM looks plausible.
If this evolution continues, I think we could start to focus on the ridge to the west giving way for hight rises to our NE and E which opens up the potential for a very topsy turvy August - cooler and unsettled to start, warm and sunny to finish ?
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