(Invalid img)
Forecast Update
Valid: Sun 05 Aug 2012 12:00 to Mon 06 Aug 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 05 Aug 2012 12:31
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK
A level 1 was issued for NE France, Benelux and W/ NW Germany mainly for severe wind gusts, marginally large hail and tornadoes.
DISCUSSION
...NE France, Benelux, W Germany...
Recent outputs of GFS and also recent soundings indicate that there will be a good overlap of 20 - 25 m/s deep layer shear and some hundred J/kg CAPE. As the shortwave trough approaches during the afternoon hours, QG forcing should be sufficient for convective initiation. Given some locally augmented SRH3, some storms may become supercellular and may pose a threat of marginally severe hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes. The threat of severe weather will gradually diminish after sunset as most of the CAPE is confined to the boundary layer.
Forecast Update
Valid: Sun 05 Aug 2012 12:00 to Mon 06 Aug 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 05 Aug 2012 12:31
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK
A level 1 was issued for NE France, Benelux and W/ NW Germany mainly for severe wind gusts, marginally large hail and tornadoes.
DISCUSSION
...NE France, Benelux, W Germany...
Recent outputs of GFS and also recent soundings indicate that there will be a good overlap of 20 - 25 m/s deep layer shear and some hundred J/kg CAPE. As the shortwave trough approaches during the afternoon hours, QG forcing should be sufficient for convective initiation. Given some locally augmented SRH3, some storms may become supercellular and may pose a threat of marginally severe hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes. The threat of severe weather will gradually diminish after sunset as most of the CAPE is confined to the boundary layer.
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 05-08-2012 14:46
