Andover, MA, September 24, 2012 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the upcoming period (October-December) to average slightly higher than normal across most regions, with the exception of parts of far southeastern Europe.
“As we head further into autumn, trends in the climate models are for a generally mild and wet period across western Europe, with any below-normal temperatures confined to parts of southern and eastern Europe” said Dr. Todd Crawford, WSI Chief Meteorologist. “Further, climate models are suggesting a lack of significant North Atlantic blocking (negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO) as we head deeper into autumn. While it is still a few weeks too early to issue a proper winter forecast, our preliminary analysis suggests that blocking (and associated cold weather) may be fairly rare, especially early in the winter.”
In October, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal
UK* – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland* – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland* – Cooler than normal
In November, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal
In December, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal
WSI, providing customized weather information to energy traders, will issue its next seasonal outlook, including the late autumn and early winter forecast, on 22 October.
http://wsi.com/f4929e77-a7e9-4c8e-8f0a-63dfaa78e708/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm
UKMO
We expect that the current weak El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific will start to disappear by the end of this year, and they are not expected to influence European and UK weather significantly during the forecast period. Arctic sea ice is at its lowest recorded extent, and whilst this could play some part in determining weather over the UK over the next few months, as yet there is no clear predictive association.
Sea surface temperatures in the northwest Atlantic are higher than normal and this favours a tendency towards colder, atmospheric blocking weather patterns over northwestern Europe.
The consensus from computer model simulations is for surface pressure to be higher than average to the north of the UK during the three-month period, especially in October. This is consistent with the anomalous sea surface temperature pattern. Such a pressure distribution favours weaker than average westerlies or spells of easterly winds, increasing the the risk of colder than average conditions through
the period.
SUMMARY - TEMPERATURE:
Indications are that October will be slightly colder than the 1981-2010 UK mean, the signal persisting through the October-November-December period. The probability that the UK mean temperature for the October-November-December period will fall into the coldest of our five categories is 20-25%, whilst the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is 10-15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/n/3/A3-plots-temp-OND.pdf
Ziet er tegengesteld uit
“As we head further into autumn, trends in the climate models are for a generally mild and wet period across western Europe, with any below-normal temperatures confined to parts of southern and eastern Europe” said Dr. Todd Crawford, WSI Chief Meteorologist. “Further, climate models are suggesting a lack of significant North Atlantic blocking (negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO) as we head deeper into autumn. While it is still a few weeks too early to issue a proper winter forecast, our preliminary analysis suggests that blocking (and associated cold weather) may be fairly rare, especially early in the winter.”
In October, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal
UK* – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland* – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland* – Cooler than normal
In November, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal
In December, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal
WSI, providing customized weather information to energy traders, will issue its next seasonal outlook, including the late autumn and early winter forecast, on 22 October.
http://wsi.com/f4929e77-a7e9-4c8e-8f0a-63dfaa78e708/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm
UKMO
We expect that the current weak El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific will start to disappear by the end of this year, and they are not expected to influence European and UK weather significantly during the forecast period. Arctic sea ice is at its lowest recorded extent, and whilst this could play some part in determining weather over the UK over the next few months, as yet there is no clear predictive association.
Sea surface temperatures in the northwest Atlantic are higher than normal and this favours a tendency towards colder, atmospheric blocking weather patterns over northwestern Europe.
The consensus from computer model simulations is for surface pressure to be higher than average to the north of the UK during the three-month period, especially in October. This is consistent with the anomalous sea surface temperature pattern. Such a pressure distribution favours weaker than average westerlies or spells of easterly winds, increasing the the risk of colder than average conditions through
the period.
SUMMARY - TEMPERATURE:
Indications are that October will be slightly colder than the 1981-2010 UK mean, the signal persisting through the October-November-December period. The probability that the UK mean temperature for the October-November-December period will fall into the coldest of our five categories is 20-25%, whilst the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is 10-15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/n/3/A3-plots-temp-OND.pdf
Ziet er tegengesteld uit
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 24-09-2012 20:30
„Et nul ne se connait tant qu'il n'a pas souffert, „C'est une dure loi, mais une loi suprème, „Vieille comme le monde et la fatalité, „Qu'l nous faut du malheur regevoir le baptéme, ~Et qu'a ce triste prix tout doit étre acheté. „Les moissons pour murir out besoin de rosée, „Pour vivre et pour sentir l'homme a besoin de pleura, „La joie a pour symbole une plante brisée, „Humide encore de pluie et couverte de fleurs."