000
WTNT44 KNHC 290254
TCDAT4
HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 66
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2012
THERE IS BASICALLY NOTHING NEW TO REPORT ON NADINE THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH A LITTLE BIT TILTED IN THE VERTICAL...THE CENTER CONTINUES
TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO
THE WEST AND RESTRICTED EVERYWHERE ELSE. BASED ON DVORAK
T-NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KNOTS. NADINE HAS
OVERCOME THE SHEAR SO FAR...AND THERE IS NO REASON TO THINK THAT IT
IS NOT GOING TO SURVIVE THE CURRENT 15 TO 20 KT OF SHEAR AND STAY
AS A HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...THE STRONGEST ONE SO FAR...IS DANGEROUSLY APPROACHING
NADINE. MOST LIKELY...THE INTERACTION WITH THIS TROUGH...AND THE
EFFECTS OF COLD WATERS...WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING.
HOWEVER...NADINE COULD ESCAPE THE TROUGH AGAIN AND MANAGE NOT TO
WEAKEN AS MUCH AS INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST.
NADINE IS ALREADY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF THIS MOTION
FOR ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST IS HIGH. AFTER THAT...NADINE WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE
BASE OF THE WESTERLIES AND VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. AT THAT
TIME...THE GUIDANCE BECOMES VERY DIVERGENT...AND NADINE COULD THEN
BEGIN TO MEANDER AIMLESSLY FOR A DAY OR TWO. A SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IS ANTICIPATED BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOPEFULLY...NADINE WILL BE CARRIED
EASTWARD BY THESE WINDS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. FOR NOW...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL HAVE TENACIOUS
NADINE FOR AT LEAST 5 MORE DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 31.0N 35.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 32.4N 36.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 34.6N 36.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 36.0N 37.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 36.5N 37.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 36.5N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 36.5N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 37.5N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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