http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html
October 16, 2012
ENSO forecast: Present warm sea surface temperature anomaly from the central to eastern equatorial Pacific (El Niño-like condition) is decaying and will disappear in boreal winter. The tropical Pacific condition will be in a neutral state next year.
Indian Ocean forecast: Present positive Indian Ocean Dipole will be over by boreal winter. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature in the whole Indian Ocean will persist during the next year. A moderate negative Indian Ocean Dipole might occur in early summer next year.
Regional forecast: Most part of the Southern Hemisphere will experience warmer-than-normal climate in austral summer. In particular, east of Brazil will be in a warmer and drier than normal condition in the following seasons. Europe, US, and southern Canada will experience colder-than-normal in boreal winter. We, however, expect warmer-than-normal climate in the central Russia, northern Canada, Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia. We expect an above-normal wet condition in southern China and Japan this winter.
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