In the model wars Europe kicks North America’s butt
Bericht van: Wout(Hillegom|ZH|NL) , 19-10-2012 23:11Bron: zie onderaan dit bericht.
Quotes : Right out of the gate, you can see ECMWF is the king while GFS and NOGAPS lag perhaps 2-5 years behind in terms of model skill. The gap is not closing. As GFS improves and unleashes its newest model iteration on an unsuspecting public, ECMWF has already upgraded its system 3 or 4 times and maintained its dominance. NCEP needs a game changer soon probably beginning with a much bigger computer. NOGAPS is not a particular useful model for medium range forecasting, e.g. anything past 4 or 5 days. It was supposed to be replaced/upgraded to a fancy new version, but that effort largely failed at NRL.
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It’s important to remember that the European model is only incrementally better than the GFS, and that the GFS is very often right when the European model gets things wrong. But when other factors are equal, it’s probably best to defer to the Euro model when it comes to weather events
