HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
400 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
...CENTER OF SANDY MOVING TOWARD CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS EVENING...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.6N 74.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
LATEST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...
AS WELL AS NOAA DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE THAT SANDY
IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY OR CENTRAL DELAWARE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF SANDY HAS DETERIORATED TODAY...EVEN AS
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY FALL...SUGGESTING THAT
THE CONVECTION IS NO LONGER DRIVING THE BUS. THE INTENSIFICATION
OBSERVED THIS MORNING WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS OCCURRING TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL CORE...AND WAS
ALMOST CERTAINLY DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING. IN ADDITION...AIRCRAFT
DATA INDICATE THAT THERE ARE STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS VERY NEAR
A MODEST RESIDUAL WARM CORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
SANDY IS BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. ALL OF THESE CONSIDERATIONS LEAD US TO CONCLUDE THAT
THE MOST APPROPRIATE CLASSIFICATION AT ADVISORY TIME IS
EXTRATROPICAL. HOWEVER...FOR CONTINUITY OF SERVICE NHC WILL
CONTINUE TO ISSUE ADVISORIES THROUGH LANDFALL. A POST-STORM
ANALYSIS WILL RE-EXAMINE THE TIMING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
WE ANTICIPATES THAT THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON SANDY WILL BE ISSUED AT
11 PM EDT TONIGHT. SINCE ALL COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN DISCONTINUED...THERE WILL BE NO INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORIES
ISSUED BETWEEN NOW AND THE 11 PM NHC ADVISORY. TO PROVIDE A
CONTINUOUS FLOW OF INFORMATION...NHC WILL ISSUE TROPICAL CYCLONE
UPDATES AT 7 PM AND 9 PM EDT...AND AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THESE
UPDATES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT63...AND AWIPS HEADER
TCUAT3...AND WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE ON THE NHC WEBSITE. BEGINNING
AT 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...PUBLIC ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...HPC...UNDER THE SAME WMO
AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE NHC PUBLIC ADVISORIES...WHICH WILL ALSO BE
AVAILABLE VIA THE NHC WEBSITE.
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE POST-LANDFALL TRACK OR
INTENSITY FORECAST. DESPITE THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION TODAY...SANDY
IS EXPECTED TO STALL INLAND TOMORROW. THIS...COUPLED WITH THE VERY
LARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM...WILL MEAN THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW
TO IMPROVE IN THE AFFECTED AREAS. STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG
THE COAST AND SPREAD FARTHER INLAND THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS...AS
RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT WINDS JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET IN
ALTITUDE ARE VERY MUCH STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR THE SURFACE. EVEN
AS SANDY WEAKENS...HEAVY RAINS WILL PERSIST OVER A LARGE
AREA...POSING A VERY SIGNIFICANT INLAND FLOOD RISK.
TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL
WARNINGS AS SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND AND OTHER
HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/2100Z 38.8N 74.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 39.8N 76.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 30/1800Z 40.4N 78.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 31/0600Z 41.3N 78.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/1800Z 42.8N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 01/1800Z 45.1N 75.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1800Z 46.3N 72.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1800Z 47.5N 65.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Canada
WOCN31 CWHX 291804 CCA
Tropical cyclone information statement corrected by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada
At 3:04 PM ADT Monday 29 October 2012
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Nova Scotia
New Brunswick
Southern Quebec
Southern Ontario.
For hurricane Sandy.
The next statement will be issued by 9:00 PM ADT.
New position data has come in.
Large and dangerous hurricane Sandy less than 12 hours from
Going inland on the New Jersey coast. Southern Ontario,
Southern Quebec and southwestern Maritimes will experience high
Wind gusts and periods of heavy rain beginning tonight and
Continuing into Tuesday.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
1. Summary of basic information at 3.00 PM ADT.
Location: near 38.3 north 73.1 west, or about 270 kilometres
south-southeast of New York City.
Maximum sustained winds: 150 km/h.
Present movement: northwest at 45 km/h.
Minimum central pressure: 940 MB.
2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.
Hurricane Sandy has accelerated northwestward today while continuing
to intensify. Sandy is an extremely large and dangerous tropical
cyclone. Sandy is expected to undergo extra-tropical transition
before reaching the New Jersey coast late tonight.
It is important to emphasize that impacts from post-tropical
Sandy extend over an extremely large area well away from the storm
centre. It is advised that persons in the above listed regions pay
close attention to messages from the Canadian Hurricane Centre, as
well as information from regional storm prediction centres for the
latest official forecasts and warnings for your area.
For additional information please refer to warning bulletins issued
by the Ontario storm prediction centre and the Quebec storm
prediction centre.
A. Rainfall.
Rain directly related to post-tropical Sandy will begin to affect
Southern Ontario later this afternoon with the heaviest bands
reaching the province this evening and overnight into Tuesday. Latest
indications are that general amounts of 20 to 40 millimetres are
forecast with locally higher amounts in excess of 50 millimetres
possible. Rainfall amounts could vary greatly with location depending
on the movement of some of the smaller heavier rainbands with this
system.
Periods of heavy rain will affect Southern and Central Quebec
starting this evening. Amounts of 20 to 40 millimetres are expected
with higher amounts possible over higher terrain.
The precipitation could mix with or change to snow over parts of
Ontario and extreme Western Quebec as temperatures approach the
freezing mark north and west of the storm.
Rain is not expected to reach the southwestern Maritimes until
Tuesday morning but could persist into Wednesday from a developing
frontal system not directly associated with Sandy. Amounts could be
significant and total amounts could exceed 50 millimetres through
Wednesday.
B. Winds.
The Quebec storm prediction centre has issued wind warnings for parts
of the St Lawrence River Valley beginning later today. The Ontario
storm prediction centre has issued wind warnings for adjacent areas
of the St Lawrence Valley as well as other parts of Southern Ontario
for high wind gusts beginning later tonight and continuing on
Tuesday.
Northerly winds are increasing over Southern Ontario. These
Winds will continue to increase this evening and gusts to 90 km/h or
higher are likely especially along Western Lake Ontario and the
Niagara Escarpment as well as areas adjacent to Lake Huron and
Georgian Bay. These wind gusts have the potential to cause broken
tree limbs or in some cases uprooted trees which may result in
Downed utility lines. Residual falling leaves can also obstruct
Storm water drainage systems along roadways particularly in urban
areas. This combined with heavy rainfall could increase the risk of
flooding in some areas.
Northeast winds are increasing over Southern Quebec. These winds
Will continue to increase this evening. The strongest winds are
expected in the St Lawrence Valley where gusts could also exceed
90 km/h.
Northeast winds gusting to 60 km/h have begun over southwestern
Nova Scotia. These winds will persist tonight and are expected to
gust to 80 km/h. Slightly lower winds expected further to the north
and east.
C. Waves.
The Quebec storm prediction centre has issued storm surge warnings
for pounding waves along shorelines adjacent to portions of Gaspé
And the north shore of the St. Lawrence. For more information please
refer to the warning bulletin issued by the Quebec storm prediction
centre.
Large waves are very likely over portions of the Great Lakes
beginning later today and into Tuesday. High seastates up to 7 metres
are possible over Southern Lake Huron.
Waves from hurricane Sandy have already moved into southwestern
maritime marine areas. Waves along the south shore of Nova Scotia
Are currently near 3 metres. Farther offshore in the southwestern
marine areas waves in the 4 to 5 metre range are being reported.
Later tonight these waves will increase to 5 to 7 metres near the
coast along the south shore which will result in locally elevated
water levels. Farther offshore wave heights will increase to the
7 to 9 metre range.
3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.
Gale and storm force wind warnings are in effect for southwestern
Maritimes marine areas for today and tonight. Gale and storm force
wind warnings are also in effect for most of the Great Lakes.
Gale force winds extend hundreds of kilometres outward from the
center of Sandy's circulation and have have moved
Into the southwestern maritime marine district. Storm force
Winds have likely moved into Georges Bank. Gale to storm force winds
will persist this evening over these marine areas.
Also, higher than normal water levels are expected on the St Lawrence
River during high tide this evening and especially Tuesday evening.
This could result in coastal flooding in the Quebec City region.
Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
latest:
- forecast position, central pressure table.
- strength and predicted wind radii table.
- hurricane track information map.
- technical discussion.
Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.
End
Top of Page
WOCN31 CWHX 291145
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 8:52 AM ADT Monday
29 October 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Nova Scotia
New Brunswick
Southern Quebec
Southern Ontario.
For hurricane Sandy.
The next statement will be issued by 3:00 PM ADT.
Large and dangerous hurricane Sandy beginning to turn toward
The U.S. coastline. Southern Ontario, Southern Quebec and
Southwestern Maritimes will experience high wind gusts and
Periods of heavy rain beginning later today and continuing into
Tuesday.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
1. Summary of basic information at 9.00 AM ADT.
Location: near 36.8 north 71.1 west, or about 490 kilometres
south-southeast of New York City.
Maximum sustained winds: 140 km/h.
Present movement: north at 32 km/h.
Minimum central pressure: 946 MB.
2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.
Hurricane Sandy intensified slightly overnight and continues to be an
extremely large and dangerous tropical cyclone. Sandy has turned
northward and will turn northwestward today while maintaining
hurricane intensity. Sandy is forecast to gradually undergo
extra-tropical transition as it heads toward the New Jersey coast.
It is possible that Sandy could strengthen further prior to moving
inland tonight.
It is important to emphasize that impacts from post-tropical Sandy
extend over an extremely large area well away from the storm center.
It is advised that persons in the above listed regions pay close
attention to messages from the Canadian Hurricane Centre, as well as
information from regional storm prediction centres for the latest
official forecasts and warnings for your area.
For additional information please refer to warning bulletins issued
this morning by the Ontario storm prediction centre and the Quebec
storm prediction centre.
A. Rainfall.
Rain directly related to post-tropical Sandy will begin to affect
Southern Ontario later this afternoon with the heaviest bands
reaching the province this evening and overnight into Tuesday. Latest
indications are that general amounts of 20 to 40 millimetres are
possible with locally higher amounts in excess of 50 millimetres
possible. Rainfall amounts could vary greatly with location depending
on the movement of some of the smaller heavier rainbands with this
system.
Periods of heavy rain will affect Southern and Central Quebec
starting this evening. Amounts of 20 to 40 millimetres are expected
with higher amounts possible over higher terrain.
The precipitation could mix with or change to snow over parts of
Ontario and extreme Western Quebec as temperatures approach the
freezing mark north and west of the storm.
Rain is not expected to reach the southwestern Maritimes until
Tuesday morning but could persist into Wednesday from a developing
frontal system not directly associated with Sandy. Amounts could be
significant and total amounts could exceed 50 millimetres through
Wednesday.
B. Winds.
The Quebec storm prediction centre has issued wind warnings for
Parts of the St Lawrence River Valley beginning later today. The
Ontario storm prediction centre has issued wind warnings for
Adjacent areas of the St Lawrence Valley as well as other parts of
Southern Ontario for high wind gusts beginning later tonight and
continuing on Tuesday.
Over Southern Ontario, gusts to 90 km/h or higher are likely
especially along Western Lake Ontario and the Niagara Escarpment as
well as areas adjacent to Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. These wind
gusts have the potential to cause broken tree limbs or in some cases
uprooted trees which may result in downed utility lines. Residual
falling leaves can also obstruct storm water drainage systems along
roadways particularly in urban areas. This combined with heavy
rainfall could increase the risk of flooding in some areas.
Very strong northeast winds will affect Southern Quebec starting
This evening and persisting Tuesday morning. The strongest winds are
expected in the St Lawrence Valley where gusts could also exceed
90 km/h.
Gusty winds can also be expected in the Maritimes starting Monday
afternoon and persisting Tuesday. Gusts up to 80 km/h are expected
along coastal areas of Southwestern Nova Scotia, with slightly lower
winds expected further to the north and east.
C. Waves.
Large waves are very likely over portions of the Great Lakes
beginning later today and into Tuesday. High seastates up to 7 metres
are possible over Southern Lake Huron.
There will be large waves and pounding surf along the
Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia. Seastates near Southwestern Nova
Scotia will be in the 5 to 7 metre range and seas father offshore
will be near 9 metres. This could result in locally elevated water
levels along the south shore.
3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.
Gale and storm force wind warnings are in effect for western
Maritimes marine areas for today and tonight. Gale and storm force
wind warnings are also in effect most of the Great Lakes.
Gale force winds extend several hundred kilometres outward from the
center of Sandy's circulation and have already reached southwestern
maritime marine waters. Winds over Georges Bank could reach up to 60
knots by noon today.
Also, higher than normal water levels are expected on the St Lawrence
River during high tide this evening and especially Tuesday evening.
This could result in coastal flooding in the Quebec City region.
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