The latest update of the ECM 32 day is fascinating today. It keeps the current signal for a meridional pattern across the north Atlantic until mid month at least with a lower pressure anom to the east or north-east which essentially leads to a risk of northerly outbreaks.
Later in the month pressure becomes lower over France and higher to the north and northeast with the general mean flow becoming northeasterly, with a similar synoptic pattern to that of late Nov 09!
It's safe to say this update keeps temps average at very best throughout November if not below average with little or no evidence to support a noteworthy polar vortex or a +NAO pattern for example.
Cheers. Matt.
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