Northern France, the Benelux countries, and surroundings
An intense polar trough will spread into western Europe from the north-west. A trough axis will cross northern France rapidly during noon and tilts negatively across the Benelux countries. Strong QG forcing is expected.
Latest models indicate rather steep lapse rates spreading eastwards with the trough. At low levels, moisture from the Bay of Biscay will advect into northern France and the Benelux countries during the day. Some diurnal heating will likely result in instability in the noon and afternoon hours.
Given the strong vertical wind shear that exceeds 20 m/s DLS and 10 m/s LLS across northern France and the Benelux countries,
well organized multicells and mesocyclones are forecast.
These rapidly moving storms may be capable of producing severe wind gusts.
Additionally, tornadoes are not ruled out especially across the Benelux countries and surroundings. Briefly large hail may also occur with stronger storms.
Main limiting factor is the weak instability and additionally relatively weak low-level convergence along the trough axis. This may lead to weaker showers especially in the southern parts of the area. A low-end level 1 is issued. After sunset, low-level cooling is expected to limit convective potential significantly.
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 01-11-2012 01:16
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