Keeping an eye for the future....look how the break off the pv over Siberia washes through the cold trough centred over NE China and is heading towards the Pacific on the GEFS. That should work its way westwards on the back of the Asian Jet and set up our Aleutian Low - forcing the ridge over Aleutians poleward and locking us into a -ve phase AO during mid to late December.
Probably 10 day type oscillations in the blocking strength for the next 30 - 45 days, thereafter all eyes on end Jan. Could well be very interesting.
CFS monthlies now starting to entertain the idea of a cold December (up to 4C below for parts of Europe). January now in the firing line and some movement there today towards a colder pattern as the models get to grips with dramatic developments. All those initialised prior to this (or those unable to spot it) will be junk status.
GEFS also starting to develop the idea of the Pacific ridge turning poleward and towards Siberia in response to Wave 2 activity in that region, in turning pulling the developing ridge to our north further NW allowing for pressure to go into free fall over Europe. For those about to mither about a west based -NAO, not really a problem in December, more of a problem in Feb.
Also fairly sizeable Asian Mountain Torque now showing its hand - might be worth keeping an eye on stratosphere within the next 10-12 days.
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