Edit.
Op basis van EC ENS gemiddelde kan het idd. best vanaf die datum.
10-15 december is een prima startmoment van de winter. Denk bijv. maar eens aan december 1939 of 1946,
00z analysis from Ops Centre:
" 4. Trend for Days 10-15 : Best estimate is for conditions to remain colder than average with frost more widespread than normal and some freezing fog patches at times. Some wintry ppn likely, especially N and E, whilst greatest probs of rainfall, strong winds and milder interludes biased towards the S and W.
5. Discussion : The main themes from the models are for a brief incursion of less-cold air over the weekend as a deepening low tracks SE’wards from Iceland (timing highly uncertain), before the upper pattern re-amplifies allowing another northerly outbreak to affect the UK early next week. Then a consistent signal for a blocked type but with greater emphasis than previously on the cyclonic limb of the block maintaining more influence with a vortex close to eastern UK and flow between N and E. The fate of the blocking pattern in the trend period is obviously even more uncertain, but hints that frontal incursions may affect at least the S and W as the main jet is displaced well south, consistent with EC monthly output."
Op basis van EC ENS gemiddelde kan het idd. best vanaf die datum.
10-15 december is een prima startmoment van de winter. Denk bijv. maar eens aan december 1939 of 1946,
00z analysis from Ops Centre:
" 4. Trend for Days 10-15 : Best estimate is for conditions to remain colder than average with frost more widespread than normal and some freezing fog patches at times. Some wintry ppn likely, especially N and E, whilst greatest probs of rainfall, strong winds and milder interludes biased towards the S and W.
5. Discussion : The main themes from the models are for a brief incursion of less-cold air over the weekend as a deepening low tracks SE’wards from Iceland (timing highly uncertain), before the upper pattern re-amplifies allowing another northerly outbreak to affect the UK early next week. Then a consistent signal for a blocked type but with greater emphasis than previously on the cyclonic limb of the block maintaining more influence with a vortex close to eastern UK and flow between N and E. The fate of the blocking pattern in the trend period is obviously even more uncertain, but hints that frontal incursions may affect at least the S and W as the main jet is displaced well south, consistent with EC monthly output."
Binnen de marges krijgen we een voortzetting van het huidige weertype, gekwakkel dus.
De langere termijn moet naar voren komen, dan kan het leuk gaan worden.
Ik heb hier eens iemand horen roepen dat het rond 10 december moet gaan gebeuren, op basis van die pluim is dat nog steeds goed mogelijk.
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 03-12-2012 10:46
„Et nul ne se connait tant qu'il n'a pas souffert, „C'est une dure loi, mais une loi suprème, „Vieille comme le monde et la fatalité, „Qu'l nous faut du malheur regevoir le baptéme, ~Et qu'a ce triste prix tout doit étre acheté. „Les moissons pour murir out besoin de rosée, „Pour vivre et pour sentir l'homme a besoin de pleura, „La joie a pour symbole une plante brisée, „Humide encore de pluie et couverte de fleurs."
