Volgens EC32 voorlopig geen winter.
Just a quick one but the EC32 isn't buying any sort of height rises or pattern changes and now goes through to the 20th of January. The full data suite including pressure, precipitation and temperature analysis all points towards a predominantly unsettled, if not zonal flow through to the middle of January at least with lower than average pressure either over or just to the east of the UK. Temperatures look to be around average primarily due to temporary N or NW'ly flows to the rear of any low pressure systems, whilst the south could be warmer than average at times. Clearly precipitation is above average pretty much throughout the forecast.
The 12Z ECMWF continues to highlight further interesting stratospheric conditions and this warming continues to be forecast, but again it just feels as though we aren't getting anywhere with it, perhaps because it has been signaled for so long. That being said January is indeed fast approaching and one way or another the signal within these forecast charts is either going to have to materalise or not.
Clearly the EC32 as with other forecast models did fail miserably regarding the E or NE'ly flow a few backs so clearly it could equally be wrong regarding the general pattern as January progresses, but as I've said before, using the full set of information operationally for over a year has proven to me it is more right than wrong and if that is the case than January could come and go with little or no noteworthy cold weather.
Regards to all and also have a very Merry Christmas.
Just a quick one but the EC32 isn't buying any sort of height rises or pattern changes and now goes through to the 20th of January. The full data suite including pressure, precipitation and temperature analysis all points towards a predominantly unsettled, if not zonal flow through to the middle of January at least with lower than average pressure either over or just to the east of the UK. Temperatures look to be around average primarily due to temporary N or NW'ly flows to the rear of any low pressure systems, whilst the south could be warmer than average at times. Clearly precipitation is above average pretty much throughout the forecast.
The 12Z ECMWF continues to highlight further interesting stratospheric conditions and this warming continues to be forecast, but again it just feels as though we aren't getting anywhere with it, perhaps because it has been signaled for so long. That being said January is indeed fast approaching and one way or another the signal within these forecast charts is either going to have to materalise or not.
Clearly the EC32 as with other forecast models did fail miserably regarding the E or NE'ly flow a few backs so clearly it could equally be wrong regarding the general pattern as January progresses, but as I've said before, using the full set of information operationally for over a year has proven to me it is more right than wrong and if that is the case than January could come and go with little or no noteworthy cold weather.
Regards to all and also have a very Merry Christmas.
„Et nul ne se connait tant qu'il n'a pas souffert, „C'est une dure loi, mais une loi suprème, „Vieille comme le monde et la fatalité, „Qu'l nous faut du malheur regevoir le baptéme, ~Et qu'a ce triste prix tout doit étre acheté. „Les moissons pour murir out besoin de rosée, „Pour vivre et pour sentir l'homme a besoin de pleura, „La joie a pour symbole une plante brisée, „Humide encore de pluie et couverte de fleurs."
