Ik was een paar dagen niet weerwoord. Tijd voor wat nieuwe informatie 
Link volgt later!
Volgens de nieuwe computer van UKMO maakt kouder weer (iets) meer kans in januari dan zacht weer. Na januari grotere kansen op zacht weer. Daarnaast benadrukken ze grote onzekerheid. Welke gezien de termijn natuurlijk ook logisch is.
Interessant om te zien wanneer en of UKMO de SSW gaat meenemen in de verwachtingen.
For January as a whole below-average UK-mean temperatures are somewhat more likely than above-average, although there is considerable uncertainty. Similarly, snow and ice may occur more often than they do in an average January.
For February and March the range of possible outcomes is also very broad, although above-average UK-mean temperatures become more likely.
Overall, the probability that the UK-mean temperature for January-February-March will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 15% whilst the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%)
CONTEXT:
Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific remain in a neutral El Ni?o/La Ni?a phase, and this is expected to continue through the forecast period. This phase has no known predictive value for northwest Europe.
Meanwhile sea temperatures in the northwest Atlantic remain well above average. This is especially true around Newfoundland, where observations show that unusually high values – more than 4 degrees Celsius above average - extend to considerable depth. Around much of the Arctic, sea surface temperatures are also above average. Similarly, Arctic sea ice extent, although undergoing the usual winter-time increase, remains at a near-record low level for the time of year, with the Barents Sea northeast of Scandinavia showing a particularly large deficit. Although we are dealing here with an emerging area of scientific research there are suggestions that the aforementioned patterns can favour blocked weather types that bring cold northerly or easterly winds to northwest Europe.
Computer forecast models show considerable spread in their handling of the weather in the January-February-March period, although the new high resolution model just introduced at the Met Office, which exhibits more skill in forecast reruns for the past, favours cold conditions over warm during January.
Some model scenarios suggest that during January the UK could be the battleground between cold air of Scandinavian or Russian origins, and mild Atlantic air, meaning that substantial changes in weather type are quite possible, although equally one or other type could prevail. Some heavy snow can be expected at the boundary between the warm and cold air, although whether that would be over the UK is far from clear. As we move into February and March mild westerly or southwesterly winds become more likely, although cold outbreaks are still possible.
The forecast curves in Figure T2 reflect all of the above, showing a shift towards colder-than-average values for January, and a structure that is close to climatology for January-February-March as a whole. On the left panel of Figure T2 note also how the bulk of the pink forecast points lie below last year’s value (labelled 2012), suggesting a high probability that January will be colder than last year.
Link volgt later!
Volgens de nieuwe computer van UKMO maakt kouder weer (iets) meer kans in januari dan zacht weer. Na januari grotere kansen op zacht weer. Daarnaast benadrukken ze grote onzekerheid. Welke gezien de termijn natuurlijk ook logisch is.
Interessant om te zien wanneer en of UKMO de SSW gaat meenemen in de verwachtingen.
For January as a whole below-average UK-mean temperatures are somewhat more likely than above-average, although there is considerable uncertainty. Similarly, snow and ice may occur more often than they do in an average January.
For February and March the range of possible outcomes is also very broad, although above-average UK-mean temperatures become more likely.
Overall, the probability that the UK-mean temperature for January-February-March will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 15% whilst the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%)
CONTEXT:
Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific remain in a neutral El Ni?o/La Ni?a phase, and this is expected to continue through the forecast period. This phase has no known predictive value for northwest Europe.
Meanwhile sea temperatures in the northwest Atlantic remain well above average. This is especially true around Newfoundland, where observations show that unusually high values – more than 4 degrees Celsius above average - extend to considerable depth. Around much of the Arctic, sea surface temperatures are also above average. Similarly, Arctic sea ice extent, although undergoing the usual winter-time increase, remains at a near-record low level for the time of year, with the Barents Sea northeast of Scandinavia showing a particularly large deficit. Although we are dealing here with an emerging area of scientific research there are suggestions that the aforementioned patterns can favour blocked weather types that bring cold northerly or easterly winds to northwest Europe.
Computer forecast models show considerable spread in their handling of the weather in the January-February-March period, although the new high resolution model just introduced at the Met Office, which exhibits more skill in forecast reruns for the past, favours cold conditions over warm during January.
Some model scenarios suggest that during January the UK could be the battleground between cold air of Scandinavian or Russian origins, and mild Atlantic air, meaning that substantial changes in weather type are quite possible, although equally one or other type could prevail. Some heavy snow can be expected at the boundary between the warm and cold air, although whether that would be over the UK is far from clear. As we move into February and March mild westerly or southwesterly winds become more likely, although cold outbreaks are still possible.
The forecast curves in Figure T2 reflect all of the above, showing a shift towards colder-than-average values for January, and a structure that is close to climatology for January-February-March as a whole. On the left panel of Figure T2 note also how the bulk of the pink forecast points lie below last year’s value (labelled 2012), suggesting a high probability that January will be colder than last year.
„Et nul ne se connait tant qu'il n'a pas souffert, „C'est une dure loi, mais une loi suprème, „Vieille comme le monde et la fatalité, „Qu'l nous faut du malheur regevoir le baptéme, ~Et qu'a ce triste prix tout doit étre acheté. „Les moissons pour murir out besoin de rosée, „Pour vivre et pour sentir l'homme a besoin de pleura, „La joie a pour symbole une plante brisée, „Humide encore de pluie et couverte de fleurs."