Paar kritische woorden over teveel achter SSW zoeken
Bericht van: sebastiaan (bussum) , 28-12-2012 09:07
Kan me in onderstaande verhaal in hoofdlijnen goed vinden. Op Netweather gaan ze nl. soms wat te rooskleurig te werk met conclusies verbinden aan de gevolgen voor de troposfeer. Laten wij maar gewoon nuchter blijven en zoals altijd afwachten (een weerliefhebber wacht wat af 
)
The correlation to a significant warming in the stratosphere has a very high correlation with a Negative AO pattern developing, however once you start disecting the fact that for the UK at least the correlation to cold conditions is significantly correlated towards the NAO & the correlation to the AO for us at least is weaker to probably slightly better than odds on for cold then we should really temper our enthusiam to something a little more realistic-
There can be no question that a SSW will preclude a net overall reduction in the mean zonal wind which in itself allows for blocking, however time after time we see that this is not the only peice of the puzzle.
Despite all the forecasts - the mention of the SAI this year & some other measures - thus far is just a plain old UK winter-.
The problem with this thread is that we are using a model to look further & further into the future at an event that is only moderatly correlated to the UK-
Its all fine & exciting, but it allows a lot of people to draw assumptions & conclusions that the stratosphere is the be all & end all-
Its remarkable that the stratosphere has been here since the day dot but it some peoples eyes its suddenly the best forecasting tool out there-
The reality is we have minimal info, minimal sample sizes & as a result to many conclusions are draw when infact the propergation of the stratosphere just lands in the troposphere & is then into the mix with all the other factors.
Is it good news the strat appears to have a warming episode, yes- can we take anything for granted. No- nothing. Noone has been able to forecast any greenland blocking thus far & that will continue to be the same until there is sufficient data to
* Forecast the warming event in advance ( WELL IN ADVANCE)
* Forecast the nature of the propergation wave, how much it downwells, what rate of change of modality of the AO we will see & how far that penetrates into the middle lattitudes.
Thats the problem with the models these days, to much info, to far in advance & little in the way of substance for forecasting the UK...
As proof of that - look at all the posts around 4-6th december forecasting wave 1 development for this week that we are in now-
Look at the 500 Heights over the pole today.
In summary-
Stratosphere thread to monitor temps & fluctuations of the zonal wind- great.
Stratosphere thread to forecast anything for the UK- pointless- why- a 2 wave/ 3 wave & 4 wave patterns all mean totally different height anomalies for the NH- however you cannot forecast any of the wave patterns from the onset of a SSW.
)The correlation to a significant warming in the stratosphere has a very high correlation with a Negative AO pattern developing, however once you start disecting the fact that for the UK at least the correlation to cold conditions is significantly correlated towards the NAO & the correlation to the AO for us at least is weaker to probably slightly better than odds on for cold then we should really temper our enthusiam to something a little more realistic-
There can be no question that a SSW will preclude a net overall reduction in the mean zonal wind which in itself allows for blocking, however time after time we see that this is not the only peice of the puzzle.
Despite all the forecasts - the mention of the SAI this year & some other measures - thus far is just a plain old UK winter-.
The problem with this thread is that we are using a model to look further & further into the future at an event that is only moderatly correlated to the UK-
Its all fine & exciting, but it allows a lot of people to draw assumptions & conclusions that the stratosphere is the be all & end all-
Its remarkable that the stratosphere has been here since the day dot but it some peoples eyes its suddenly the best forecasting tool out there-
The reality is we have minimal info, minimal sample sizes & as a result to many conclusions are draw when infact the propergation of the stratosphere just lands in the troposphere & is then into the mix with all the other factors.
Is it good news the strat appears to have a warming episode, yes- can we take anything for granted. No- nothing. Noone has been able to forecast any greenland blocking thus far & that will continue to be the same until there is sufficient data to
* Forecast the warming event in advance ( WELL IN ADVANCE)
* Forecast the nature of the propergation wave, how much it downwells, what rate of change of modality of the AO we will see & how far that penetrates into the middle lattitudes.
Thats the problem with the models these days, to much info, to far in advance & little in the way of substance for forecasting the UK...
As proof of that - look at all the posts around 4-6th december forecasting wave 1 development for this week that we are in now-
Look at the 500 Heights over the pole today.
In summary-
Stratosphere thread to monitor temps & fluctuations of the zonal wind- great.
Stratosphere thread to forecast anything for the UK- pointless- why- a 2 wave/ 3 wave & 4 wave patterns all mean totally different height anomalies for the NH- however you cannot forecast any of the wave patterns from the onset of a SSW.
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 28-12-2012 09:08
„Et nul ne se connait tant qu'il n'a pas souffert, „C'est une dure loi, mais une loi suprème, „Vieille comme le monde et la fatalité, „Qu'l nous faut du malheur regevoir le baptéme, ~Et qu'a ce triste prix tout doit étre acheté. „Les moissons pour murir out besoin de rosée, „Pour vivre et pour sentir l'homme a besoin de pleura, „La joie a pour symbole une plante brisée, „Humide encore de pluie et couverte de fleurs."
