Wat mij betreft een prima verhaal.
Geheel te lezen hier:
http://matthugo.wordpress.com/2012/12/30/a-new-month-a-new-year-january-2013/
Conclusie:
Now, what I should add here, which I have also mentioned in the blog from a few months back, is that a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event doesn’t automatically mean cold weather for the UK. This is an important variable and just because one is forecast doesn’t mean the UK will be plunged into deep cold for weeks. However, what it does mean is that the affects on the troposphere is likely to be significant and previous SSW events and analysis clearly show that when a SSW event occurs it promotes a highly disorganised polar vortex and allows/aids in the development of blocking (higher pressure) at higher latitudes. If high pressure can be achieved at higher latitudes then this brings the risk of colder weather affecting the UK and also many other parts of the northern hemisphere. As an example of high pressure becomes dominant to the north-west of the UK over and around Greenland, then this ‘blocks’ the Atlantic and often brings cold/very cold north or north-easterly winds for several days.
I will shy away from creating a graphic of how I think the synoptic patterns will evolve beyond mid-January simply because it is anyone’s guess for now. However, the science being the SSW is sound and I do believe that given the above information and also other information, that as January progresses a far more blocked pattern will likely develop and as a result will bring an increased risk of colder conditions affecting the UK towards and beyond mid-January. Clearly the details as to how cold, how long any cold will last and its origins are unknown and will be for a number of weeks. But I urge caution at writing off this winter, there is a long way to go and I do believe eventually the ‘cold’ will arrive.
Mooie bijdrage en ben het volkomen eens met bovenstaande zienswijze, we zullen het zien!!
