Stewart gaat daar vanuit. Ik weet niet in hoeverre dat klopt. Iets om te leren in de toekomst.
Stewarts analogen zijn om te watertanden. Al gezien?
matts bijdrage
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74587-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20122013/page__st__1780#entry2463396
-> Matt gaat er vanuit dat GFS het juist heeft (?) qua MJO, dat lijkt me wel wat voorbarig.
Just a quick one, but the EC32 is a big change to previous runs and shows a particularly blocked pattern in and around Greenland and to the north of the UK in general through the second half of January as low pressure systems track further and further south. The pattern, dare I say it, resembles what it was showing during the middle of November with regards to potential E or more significantly NE'lies which is what are the dominant wind directions for the UK during the second half of the month according to the latest EC32.
I can't remember whether it is a post in here or in the model thread, but someone summed up my ideas perfectly before I had the change to post them and that is I also believe the ECM model is running behind in terms of blocking primarily because of its handling of the MJO. The EC32 day shows the MJO moving into phase 6 and 7 quite nicely but not until at least day 15 to day 20 which is clearly now beyond mid-month, whereas the GFS takes it to a similar phase more quickly.
I'm not say this is the primary reason, but I do believe it is a main one. The EC32, of late, has been poor beyond week 2 and I must admit it even needs to redeem itself in my eyes given the last few months. Clearly what it does do is support the consistent idea of northern blocking as the month progresses, but clearly where that blocking will be exactly is unknown. My money is on a Greenland-type blocking bringing N or NE'lies rather than an E'ly flow, but clearly compared with the winter so far I'll take either!
The EC32 looks very similar to this, but clearly at longer time frames;
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zENS11-15day500mbHeightAnomalyNH.gif
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