Dat lijkt me een aanwijzing dat de effecten van de SSW sneller gaan dan anders. Hij wijst er op dat de modellen niet juist werken voordat de effecten beter verwerkt worden. Grote variatie in de runs. Negeer de LT. Zeer grote onzekerheid.
Gewoon afwachten lijkt mij.
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75444-winter-model-discussion-cold-hunting-12z-030113/page__st__20#entry2462809
A senior colleague literally just reiterated this key, key point: "No NWP will get a grip until SSW effects feed lower-down into model synthesis." Ignore -in effective sense of preventing any coronary - all GFS output post around mid-late next week. UKMO model equally showing considerable inter-run flux at longer reaches too (it goes to T+168 internally) and all of this is expected / symptomatic / characteristic of how they struggle with the complex dynamics of what is still at an incipient phase. Nothing, as yet, is offering anything surprising nor unexpected. So, please: NO MORE posts bemoaning any lack of profound cold showing at longer range of GFS, or EC, or whatever. It is all - stress ALL - considered effectively unreliable. Period.
Gewoon afwachten lijkt mij.
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75444-winter-model-discussion-cold-hunting-12z-030113/page__st__20#entry2462809
A senior colleague literally just reiterated this key, key point: "No NWP will get a grip until SSW effects feed lower-down into model synthesis." Ignore -in effective sense of preventing any coronary - all GFS output post around mid-late next week. UKMO model equally showing considerable inter-run flux at longer reaches too (it goes to T+168 internally) and all of this is expected / symptomatic / characteristic of how they struggle with the complex dynamics of what is still at an incipient phase. Nothing, as yet, is offering anything surprising nor unexpected. So, please: NO MORE posts bemoaning any lack of profound cold showing at longer range of GFS, or EC, or whatever. It is all - stress ALL - considered effectively unreliable. Period.
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 04-01-2013 12:52
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