zoveel is zeker want een cat 3 behoort nog tot de mogelijkheden. Dit zou dan de zesde major hurricane zijn dit seizoen.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY. JEANNE IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 27C...LIKELY BROUGHT ABOUT BY
UPWELLING CAUSED BY THE SLOW-MOVING HURRICANE. SINCE JEANNE
REMAINS SLOW MOVING...THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION MAY BE TEMPORARY. ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING
IS LIKELY WHILE JEANNE REMAINS EAST OF 72W. THE WATERS ARE ABOUT
28C WEST OF 72W...AND WHEN JEANNE REACHES THEM IT SHOULD BE IN A
RATHER FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN. THUS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS STRENGTHENING. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS STILL
RELUCTANT TO FORECAST JEANNE MUCH ABOVE 95-100 KT...AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL SHOW 95 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS.
HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE TO SEE JEANNE REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS IN 48-72 HR. AFTER 72 HR...LAND INTERACTION AND
INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.
GIVEN THE FORECAST OF THE STEERING CURRENTS...FLORIDA SHOULD PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF JEANNE.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0900Z 25.5N 69.5W 85 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 25.4N 70.5W 85 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 25.4N 72.1W 90 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 25.6N 74.0W 90 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 26.0N 75.9W 95 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 27.0N 79.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 27/0600Z 29.5N 81.5W 85 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 28/0600Z 34.0N 80.0W 75 KT...INLAND
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