Karl trekt niet aan, maar zwakt af:
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/22. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS
THE SAME AS EARLIER WITH KARL ACCELERATING MAINLY NORTHWARD ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND
CUTTING OFF A LOW. THE MOTION IS FORCAST TO BE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER
48 HOURS...AND KARL THEN MERGES WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AFTER 72
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER AND KARL
SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 24 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ALSO RAPIDLY
DECREASING AND BECOMING POORLY ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
IS DECREASED TO 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INENSITY ESTIMATES. THE
FORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FOLLOWING THE SHIPS
MODEL FOR 36 HOURS AND THEN SLOWS THE WEAKENING TREND AS BAROCLINIC
ENERGY SOURCES MAINTAIN A STRONG CIRCULATION.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 35.7N 43.3W 90 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 39.7N 42.4W 80 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 44.7N 42.0W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 25/0600Z 49.2N 40.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/1800Z 54.0N 34.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/1800Z 62.0N 9.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/1800Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
Op de kaarten zie ik ook geen orkaan die Europa treft. Ik ben er dus nogal gerust in.
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/22. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS
THE SAME AS EARLIER WITH KARL ACCELERATING MAINLY NORTHWARD ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND
CUTTING OFF A LOW. THE MOTION IS FORCAST TO BE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER
48 HOURS...AND KARL THEN MERGES WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AFTER 72
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER AND KARL
SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 24 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ALSO RAPIDLY
DECREASING AND BECOMING POORLY ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
IS DECREASED TO 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INENSITY ESTIMATES. THE
FORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FOLLOWING THE SHIPS
MODEL FOR 36 HOURS AND THEN SLOWS THE WEAKENING TREND AS BAROCLINIC
ENERGY SOURCES MAINTAIN A STRONG CIRCULATION.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 35.7N 43.3W 90 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 39.7N 42.4W 80 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 44.7N 42.0W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 25/0600Z 49.2N 40.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/1800Z 54.0N 34.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/1800Z 62.0N 9.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/1800Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
Op de kaarten zie ik ook geen orkaan die Europa treft. Ik ben er dus nogal gerust in.
Ingen ko på isen!
