Van TWO geplukt, ik neem er notie van, meer niet.
Winter starts now - and it's a cold one
By John Crowley
(Filed: 13/10/2004)
Britain is heading for one of the coldest winters in recent memory, according to the forecasters who correctly predicted this summer's washout.
After a series of mild winters, Metcheck.com says the first serious chill will begin on Monday, with regular cold fronts sweeping across the country in November and December. Further prolonged bitter spells are expected to follow in the New Year.
Andrew Bond, the senior forecaster for the group, said: "From what we are predicting, Britain could see its coldest winter of the century so far.
"It is time to ditch the wellies for woollies. This winter will be a lot more cold and less wet than previous winters. The cold snap next week is nature giving us a taste of what is to come in the next few months."
He added: "We are confident that we will see a higher than average frequency of northerly weather types, bringing not just colder weather but a more frequent snowfall than we have experienced in recent years.
"People have become accustomed to mild winters, so a cold season that goes against the grain will come as a shock."
Next week could see bitterly cold winds in the South and snowfall in the North, Mr Bond said. There will then be a very cold spell between Nov 22 and 27, another between Dec 4 and 11 and a further one next year between Jan 22 and 25.
Although temperatures will be fairly average for most of November, they are expected to plummet at the end of the month.
By the time the cold weather really takes hold in December and January, the maximum temperatures in London will be just 6C (43-45F) and 4C or 5C (39-41F) in the North, around two degrees below average.
Mr Bond was one of the few pundits to predict accurately a wet summer back in March, but rival weather pundits are sceptical about the reliability of such long-term forecasts.
Dominic Woollatt, a Met Office spokesman, said. "We prefer to forecast accurately which is why we have mid-term forecasts just a month ahead. We do not know what methods are being used. Sometimes they are right, sometimes they are not.
"It is very hard to give a forecast that far ahead. You could say that next summer is going to be a scorcher, but I would only be 10 per cent sure. It is winter, so the chances are that it will be cold."
What is not in dispute is the British obsession with the weather and the idiosyncratic efforts to predict it. Berries have appeared early this year on holly and hawthorn, which many gardeners take as a clue that a harsh winter lies ahead.
Tim Sparks, an environmental scientist for the centre for ecology and hydrology, said a large crop of berries did not necessarily augur bleak weather. "We like to believe in folklore but we just do not have a crystal ball to predict the weather far ahead," he said.
Meanwhile, meteorologists are increasingly in demand, with companies prepared to pay forecasters handsomely for a prediction covering a two- or three-week period. The Met Office currently charges around £350 for a three-week forecast.
Most scientists agree that accuracy falls dramatically over just a few days, thanks to what scientists call the "chaos theory". This shows that small fluctuations in sea temperatures have huge consequences over land, which makes it impossible to give more than a "seasonal" forecast beyond a 10-day period.
Mr Bond disagrees. "It is about time people started thinking about weather forecasts beyond the near future," he said. "We have been called irresponsible but utilities companies, supermarkets, restaurants and clothes manufacturers believe we can predict the weather well in advance."
The bad news for commuters is that many train companies are also expecting tough times ahead. From next weekend, many services will set off five minutes early and terminate five minutes later to cope with the growing numbers of leaves on the lines.
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