Francis schrijft in haar conclusie
Let wel, het is wetenschap. Stand van zaken kan morgen weer anders zijn. Zover als ik weet is het nog niet op een wetenschappelijke basis onderuit gehaald.
In summary, the observational analysis presented in
this study
provides evidence supporting two hypothesized mechanisms by which Arctic amplification
enhanced Arctic warming relative to that in mid-latitudes may cause more persistent weather patterns in mid-latitudes that can lead to extreme weather. One effect is a reduced poleward gradient
in 1000-500 hPa thicknesses, which
weakens the zonal upper-level flow. According to Rossby wave theory, a weaker flow slows the eastward wave progression and tends to follow a higher amplitude trajectory, resulting in slower moving circulation systems. More prolonged weather conditions enhance the probability for extreme weather due to drought, flooding, cold spells, and heat waves. The second effect is
a northward elongation of ridge peaks in 500 hPa waves, which amplifies the flow trajectory and further exacerbates the increased probability of slow-moving weather patterns. While Arctic amplification during autumn and winter is largely driven by sea-ice loss and the subsequent transfer of additional energy from the ocean into the high-latitude atmosphere, the increasing tendency for high-amplitude patterns in summer is consistent with enhanced warming over high-latitude land caused by earlier snow melt
and drying of the soil. Enhanced 500-hPa ridging observed over the eastern N. Atlantic is consistent with more persistent high surface pressure over western Europe. This effect has been implicated ascontributing to record heatwaves in Europe during recent summers
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