Vanmorgen meldde onze huisguru al dat het na 5 mei warmer zou gaan worden. Benieuwd naar zijn motivatie. Dat gaf mij in ieder geval de inspiratie om zelf even te gaan kijken voor de LT.
Tot mijn surprise kwam MetOffice zojuist met een update waarin gemeld wordt dat het stabieler weer gaat worden op de LT; meer zon en minder neerslag. In het bericht wordt melding gemaakt dat de oostelijke kust last kan hebben van de koude Noordzee (dus oostelijke wind). Wij hebben natuurlijk (in algemene zin) bij oostenwind geen last van de Noordzee.
edit 2; nog Cassou en MJO toegevoegd
Ik vermoed dat UKMO zich baseert op de EC MJO-verwachting. Dit is vrij nieuw, geïnspireerd door het werk van de Franse Meteoroloog Christophe Cassou uit 2008. http://www.cerfacs.fr/globc/links/presentation/Sieste_cassou_2008.pdf -> pagina 20 en 21 met name http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v455/n7212/full/nature07286.html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml gekoppeld met de teleconnectie voor mei -> fase 2 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO/MayPhase2500mb.gif en een aantal andere signalen, wellicht de stratosfeer. Volgens Chio (expert op het gebied van stratosfeer van Netweather forum) kunnen blokkades in mei op onze 'hoogte' wel eens hardnekkig zijn, voorwaarde gunstige MJO
For those interested in next months influences look no further than the current mean zonal wind anomalies at 60ºN. These are running well above average. What we are seeing is the knock on effect from the SSW. The polar vortex took a long time to recover following January's SSW and March's wave 1 activity increase, but now it has done so the positive mean zonal winds have filtered down to the troposphere and the HLB's have diminished. If we can get some kind of alignment from the MJO/GWO then mid latitude blocking will persist for some time into May.
UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 May 2013 to Friday 10 May 2013:
An unsettled start to May is expected in many central and northern areas with some longer spells of rain and even hill snow in the far north. Some southeastern areas will probably be mainly dry at this stage with some sunny spells, but even here there is a risk of some cloudier spells with more patchy rain. Temperatures will be generally rather cold with overnight ground frosts still likely. However daytime temperatures may reach close to average in any sunnier interludes in the southeast. Heading into the first full week of May there is an increasing likelihood of drier and more settled conditions spreading to many parts of the UK, with daytime temperatures perhaps becoming warm at times towards the east and southeast.
Updated: 1214 on Fri 26 Apr 2013
UK Outlook for Saturday 11 May 2013 to Saturday 25 May 2013:
The middle of May is most likely to see dry and settled conditions prevail across much of the UK. However, given that the North Sea is expected to be colder than normal for May, this will leave eastern coasts colder than average. Further inland, daytime temperatures will most likely be around or just below average, but perhaps a little above in the west in any prolonged spells of sunshine. Towards the end of the period it may well turn more unsettled with an increased chance of rain and showers, with temperatures still rather cold for May.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html
Edit
MJO fase 2 in mei
MJO fase 3 in mei; komt goed overeen met toenemende kans op onstabiliteit richting 2e helft van mei
Tot mijn surprise kwam MetOffice zojuist met een update waarin gemeld wordt dat het stabieler weer gaat worden op de LT; meer zon en minder neerslag. In het bericht wordt melding gemaakt dat de oostelijke kust last kan hebben van de koude Noordzee (dus oostelijke wind). Wij hebben natuurlijk (in algemene zin) bij oostenwind geen last van de Noordzee.
edit 2; nog Cassou en MJO toegevoegd
Ik vermoed dat UKMO zich baseert op de EC MJO-verwachting. Dit is vrij nieuw, geïnspireerd door het werk van de Franse Meteoroloog Christophe Cassou uit 2008. http://www.cerfacs.fr/globc/links/presentation/Sieste_cassou_2008.pdf -> pagina 20 en 21 met name http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v455/n7212/full/nature07286.html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml gekoppeld met de teleconnectie voor mei -> fase 2 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO/MayPhase2500mb.gif en een aantal andere signalen, wellicht de stratosfeer. Volgens Chio (expert op het gebied van stratosfeer van Netweather forum) kunnen blokkades in mei op onze 'hoogte' wel eens hardnekkig zijn, voorwaarde gunstige MJO
For those interested in next months influences look no further than the current mean zonal wind anomalies at 60ºN. These are running well above average. What we are seeing is the knock on effect from the SSW. The polar vortex took a long time to recover following January's SSW and March's wave 1 activity increase, but now it has done so the positive mean zonal winds have filtered down to the troposphere and the HLB's have diminished. If we can get some kind of alignment from the MJO/GWO then mid latitude blocking will persist for some time into May.
UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 May 2013 to Friday 10 May 2013:
An unsettled start to May is expected in many central and northern areas with some longer spells of rain and even hill snow in the far north. Some southeastern areas will probably be mainly dry at this stage with some sunny spells, but even here there is a risk of some cloudier spells with more patchy rain. Temperatures will be generally rather cold with overnight ground frosts still likely. However daytime temperatures may reach close to average in any sunnier interludes in the southeast. Heading into the first full week of May there is an increasing likelihood of drier and more settled conditions spreading to many parts of the UK, with daytime temperatures perhaps becoming warm at times towards the east and southeast.
Updated: 1214 on Fri 26 Apr 2013
UK Outlook for Saturday 11 May 2013 to Saturday 25 May 2013:
The middle of May is most likely to see dry and settled conditions prevail across much of the UK. However, given that the North Sea is expected to be colder than normal for May, this will leave eastern coasts colder than average. Further inland, daytime temperatures will most likely be around or just below average, but perhaps a little above in the west in any prolonged spells of sunshine. Towards the end of the period it may well turn more unsettled with an increased chance of rain and showers, with temperatures still rather cold for May.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html
Edit
MJO fase 2 in mei
MJO fase 3 in mei; komt goed overeen met toenemende kans op onstabiliteit richting 2e helft van mei
„Et nul ne se connait tant qu'il n'a pas souffert, „C'est une dure loi, mais une loi suprème, „Vieille comme le monde et la fatalité, „Qu'l nous faut du malheur regevoir le baptéme, ~Et qu'a ce triste prix tout doit étre acheté. „Les moissons pour murir out besoin de rosée, „Pour vivre et pour sentir l'homme a besoin de pleura, „La joie a pour symbole une plante brisée, „Humide encore de pluie et couverte de fleurs."