Estofex LVL 2 update voor Centraal+Noord Frankrijk
Bericht van: Stefan (Wezep)
, 18-06-2013 19:02
... France ...
It looks like thunderstorm activity streaming from S France towards north might have eventually become surface-based. Trappes 12 UTC sounding reveals very high values of 0-3 and 0-6km bulk shear with mostly unidirectional wind profile, while models simulate enhancement of SREH values towards the evening. With SSE-ly low level jet over the area, SREH values exceeding 300 m2/s2 are simulated while DLS values should reach between 30 - 40 m/s. In such environment, given the fact that storms are able root in the boundary layer, well organised DMC is expected, including long-lived supercells capable of (very) large hail, severe wind gusts and also tornadoes or bow echoes capable of isolated extremely severe wind gusts.
