Zit dus net aan de rand met level 2...
SYNOPSIS
At 06 UTC on Wednesday, a frontal zone stretches from eastern Spain across southeast France and northeast Germany to northern Poland. It separates a warm air mass with relatively steep lapse rates to its east from cooler air to its west.
A mid/upper-level trough is initially located near 8 W and forecast to move eastward during Wednesday.
A wave is in the front is expected to evolve with an area of low pressure developing over France and moving northward into the Benelux countries. A major driver behind the pressure falls is likely the latent heat release in abundant convection across France.
On the eastern fringe of the low pressure system, a mid-level jet is expected to strengthen, reaching wind speeds of 20-25 m/s at 700 hPa.
DISCUSSION
... northwest and north Germany, Benelux countries ...
NWP guidance suggests that abundant partly convective precipitation will persist to the north and west of the surface low. This may lead to flash flooding in some locations across the Benelux countries,
A warm front is expected to stretch eastward from the low pressure system's core. Near this front relatively high amounts of moisture should be available wih 18-20 C dew point temperatures liekly in place.
In combination with the relatively steep lapse rates, 1000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE forecast to develop there during the day. Near the surface low, CAPE values will probably be somewhat lower though.
Near and especially to the north of the warm front, a strongly sheared and helical flow should be in place. We expect scattered to widespread storms will develop during the day. With about 20 m/s of deep-layer shear, a few supercells are expected, yielding a risk of large hail and severe winds.
Storms developing in the helical flow near and to the north of the warm front, where cloud bases should be low, can produce a few tornadoes. The greatest risk of this happening will be across northwestern Germany.
SYNOPSIS
At 06 UTC on Wednesday, a frontal zone stretches from eastern Spain across southeast France and northeast Germany to northern Poland. It separates a warm air mass with relatively steep lapse rates to its east from cooler air to its west.
A mid/upper-level trough is initially located near 8 W and forecast to move eastward during Wednesday.
A wave is in the front is expected to evolve with an area of low pressure developing over France and moving northward into the Benelux countries. A major driver behind the pressure falls is likely the latent heat release in abundant convection across France.
On the eastern fringe of the low pressure system, a mid-level jet is expected to strengthen, reaching wind speeds of 20-25 m/s at 700 hPa.
DISCUSSION
... northwest and north Germany, Benelux countries ...
NWP guidance suggests that abundant partly convective precipitation will persist to the north and west of the surface low. This may lead to flash flooding in some locations across the Benelux countries,
A warm front is expected to stretch eastward from the low pressure system's core. Near this front relatively high amounts of moisture should be available wih 18-20 C dew point temperatures liekly in place.
In combination with the relatively steep lapse rates, 1000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE forecast to develop there during the day. Near the surface low, CAPE values will probably be somewhat lower though.
Near and especially to the north of the warm front, a strongly sheared and helical flow should be in place. We expect scattered to widespread storms will develop during the day. With about 20 m/s of deep-layer shear, a few supercells are expected, yielding a risk of large hail and severe winds.
Storms developing in the helical flow near and to the north of the warm front, where cloud bases should be low, can produce a few tornadoes. The greatest risk of this happening will be across northwestern Germany.
