MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MEDIUM.
TOUGH FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD...AS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE BIG EFFECT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ANY
HEAT HEADLINES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING 500MB HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE WEST
FROM WESTERN MISSOURI TO EASTERN KANSAS. THIS ALLOWS FOR GENERALLY
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AT THIS LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION WITHIN
THIS FLOW REGIME...ONE CLIPPING THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES MONDAY
MORNING...AND ANOTHER CLIPPING A SIMILAR AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS INDICATING FIRST POSSIBLE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
SUNDAY EVENING...WITHIN FOCUSED 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS
AREA THEN SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SECOND POSSIBLE MCS FORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATER MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MORE FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS POSSIBLY
EXTENDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NAM FURTHER SOUTH WITH SURFACE LOW AND SUBSEQUENT QPF WITH THIS
CONVECTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS TUESDAY MORNING. FAVOR OTHER
MODEL DEPICTIONS OF SENDING THIS PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA BY AFTERNOON.
MODELS THEN BRING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA...NAM
ONCE AGAIN QUICKER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. SIDED WITH THE SLOWER
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE. NAM/GFS HAVE SOME QPF
IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN QUITE DRY.
Quote selectie