Tweet van Matt Hugo.
EC seasonal highlighting a possible -ve AO pattern in Jan/Feb in particular, so perhaps any cold weather later on rather than early winter.
-> EC seizoensverwachting geeft een mogelijk negatieve AO in jan en februari. Dus wellicht komt kouder weer eerder laat dan vroeg.
Matthew Hugo ?@MattHugo81 18 september
Sep update of the EUROSIP model gives little idea for winter, but EC seasonal shows high pressure over or just to the W of the UK as an avg.
EUROSIP geeft geen duidelijk beeld(? goed vertaald). EC laat als gemiddelde hogedruk bij de (of net ten westen van de) UK zien.
https://twitter.com/MattHugo81
Wat is EUROSIP?
http://www.wcrp-climate.org/wgsip/wgsip12/reports/EUROSIP.pdf
The EUROSIP forecasting system is the operational monthly production of 7 month 41 member forecasts by ECMWF, Met Office and Météo France. It includes a 20
year hind cast period.
Traditionally, the evaluation of seasonal forecasts is based on seasonal means. However a numerical forecast beyond day 10 is essentially probabilistic, and a season is a sequence of events which can be considered as random, from a probabilist ic point of view. This random aspect can be conditioned by slowly evolving large scale features like ENSO index. In other words, the probability distribution function (pdf) for a given season is yearly dependent. The forecast target of a given season can be represented by the pdf of the 90 daily observed value. The trivial forecast to be beaten can be represented by the pdf of all daily values of the 20 seasons.
Seizoensverwachtingen zijn experimenteel. Tot op heden zijn de resultaten voor onze regio mager. Onderzoek naar verbetering is in volle gang.
EC seasonal highlighting a possible -ve AO pattern in Jan/Feb in particular, so perhaps any cold weather later on rather than early winter.
-> EC seizoensverwachting geeft een mogelijk negatieve AO in jan en februari. Dus wellicht komt kouder weer eerder laat dan vroeg.
Matthew Hugo ?@MattHugo81 18 september
Sep update of the EUROSIP model gives little idea for winter, but EC seasonal shows high pressure over or just to the W of the UK as an avg.
EUROSIP geeft geen duidelijk beeld(? goed vertaald). EC laat als gemiddelde hogedruk bij de (of net ten westen van de) UK zien.
https://twitter.com/MattHugo81
Wat is EUROSIP?
http://www.wcrp-climate.org/wgsip/wgsip12/reports/EUROSIP.pdf
The EUROSIP forecasting system is the operational monthly production of 7 month 41 member forecasts by ECMWF, Met Office and Météo France. It includes a 20
year hind cast period.
Traditionally, the evaluation of seasonal forecasts is based on seasonal means. However a numerical forecast beyond day 10 is essentially probabilistic, and a season is a sequence of events which can be considered as random, from a probabilist ic point of view. This random aspect can be conditioned by slowly evolving large scale features like ENSO index. In other words, the probability distribution function (pdf) for a given season is yearly dependent. The forecast target of a given season can be represented by the pdf of the 90 daily observed value. The trivial forecast to be beaten can be represented by the pdf of all daily values of the 20 seasons.
Seizoensverwachtingen zijn experimenteel. Tot op heden zijn de resultaten voor onze regio mager. Onderzoek naar verbetering is in volle gang.
„Et nul ne se connait tant qu'il n'a pas souffert, „C'est une dure loi, mais une loi suprème, „Vieille comme le monde et la fatalité, „Qu'l nous faut du malheur regevoir le baptéme, ~Et qu'a ce triste prix tout doit étre acheté. „Les moissons pour murir out besoin de rosée, „Pour vivre et pour sentir l'homme a besoin de pleura, „La joie a pour symbole une plante brisée, „Humide encore de pluie et couverte de fleurs."
