Alweer level 1 ESTOFEX? Oktober de onweersmaand...
Bericht van: Philippe (Maastricht, Nederland) , 22-10-2013 23:45
Alweer? Ik begin dubbel te zien, bijna precies dezelfde verwachtingen als de afgelopen dagen... Blijft het nu zo doorgaan? Dan zou het wel een supermaand worden 
Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 23 Oct 2013 06:00 to Thu 24 Oct 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 22 Oct 2013 21:15
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 1 was issued for Central France, BENELUX and Northwestern Germany mainly for tornadoes and severe wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued for Southern France and Northern Italy mainly for excessive precipitation and tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for Western Iberia mainly for excessive precipitation.
SYNOPSIS
General macrosynoptic pattern will remain more or less the same as during the previous days - a broad southwesterly flow is forecast over much of Western and Central Europe situated between deep trough over the Atlantic and ridge over Eastern Europe. This trough will translate towards northeast, slightly de-amplifying the ridge but no major reconfiguration is expected. Unseasonably warm airmass has spread all the way up to Southern Scandinavia, while a weak CAA is expected behind the insignificant cold front that will move from France towards Germany. Another significant trough will approach the Iberian penninsula towards the Thursday morning hours.
DISCUSSION
... Central, NE France, BENELUX, NW Germany ...
With cooler, moist airmass overspreading the region, low LCLs are forecast. Only moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will very likely limit the instability build-up, so that only few hundreds J/kg of CAPE are expected at best. Strong, unidirectional wind shear is simulated, with much of the shear within the lowest 1 km, yielding LLS values between 10-15 m/s in the region. With the belt of enhanced PV approaching the area, scattered DMC will initiate. In the strong shear regime, low-topped supercells are well possible, capable of severe wind gusts, tornadoes or some mostly sub-severe hail.
Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 23 Oct 2013 06:00 to Thu 24 Oct 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 22 Oct 2013 21:15
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 1 was issued for Central France, BENELUX and Northwestern Germany mainly for tornadoes and severe wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued for Southern France and Northern Italy mainly for excessive precipitation and tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for Western Iberia mainly for excessive precipitation.
SYNOPSIS
General macrosynoptic pattern will remain more or less the same as during the previous days - a broad southwesterly flow is forecast over much of Western and Central Europe situated between deep trough over the Atlantic and ridge over Eastern Europe. This trough will translate towards northeast, slightly de-amplifying the ridge but no major reconfiguration is expected. Unseasonably warm airmass has spread all the way up to Southern Scandinavia, while a weak CAA is expected behind the insignificant cold front that will move from France towards Germany. Another significant trough will approach the Iberian penninsula towards the Thursday morning hours.
DISCUSSION
... Central, NE France, BENELUX, NW Germany ...
With cooler, moist airmass overspreading the region, low LCLs are forecast. Only moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will very likely limit the instability build-up, so that only few hundreds J/kg of CAPE are expected at best. Strong, unidirectional wind shear is simulated, with much of the shear within the lowest 1 km, yielding LLS values between 10-15 m/s in the region. With the belt of enhanced PV approaching the area, scattered DMC will initiate. In the strong shear regime, low-topped supercells are well possible, capable of severe wind gusts, tornadoes or some mostly sub-severe hail.
Twitter: @Fliep | 17 jaar en geïnteresseerd in alle weersverschijnselen | Zuid-Limburg, je zal er maar wonen...