We also expanded the level 2 area towards W-Greece, where back-building storms could also result in excessive and flash flood producing storms. A tornado risk also exists from the N-Adriatic Sea all the way down to W-Greece (E-coasts of the Adriatic and Ionian Sea), as onshore moving storms will have a temporal overlap of decreasing CAPE and increasing frictional LL shear. In addition, isolated large hail is possible, especially with tail-end storms.
During the end of the forecast, DMC probabilities also increase over the Aegean Sea, where 400-800 J/kg MLCAPE and 15-20 m/s DLS overlap. A few organized multicells could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to NE Greece and W-Turkey. Timing of CI remains unclear and hence only a 50-% lightning area was added for now. The main activity should start after 06Z.
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