TORNADO WATCH 2014/001
A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 1125GMT on Wednesday February 12th 2014
Valid from/until: 11:25- 21:00GMT on Wednesday February 12th 2014 for the following regions
Parts of (see map)
England
Wales
S Scotland
Channel Is
IoM
THREATS
Tornadoes; wind gusts to 100mph; hail; isolated CG lightning
DISCUSSION
Intense Atlantic low will move from W Eire to W Scotland today. At the surface, a strong cold front will move east across much of Britain, with a very strong WSW'erly flow following, especially into western parts. Although instability along the cold front is meagre, intense forcing and very strong shear along it suggests a tornado risk with this feature, as well as gusts of 60-70mph, locally higher along exposed coasts.
Following this cold front, a very tight pressure gradient will move in, especially for Wales and NW England. Very strong gusts of 80-90mph, and perhaps 100mph will affect parts of Wales, and NW England. Although these may occur independent of convection (and the risk is already covered by UKMO warnings), convection may enhance gusts, and thus this forecast includes this risk. The flow may be too intense for a tornado risk, but it is not out of the question.
Forecaster: RPK. Quote selectie
A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 1125GMT on Wednesday February 12th 2014
Valid from/until: 11:25- 21:00GMT on Wednesday February 12th 2014 for the following regions
Parts of (see map)
England
Wales
S Scotland
Channel Is
IoM
THREATS
Tornadoes; wind gusts to 100mph; hail; isolated CG lightning
DISCUSSION
Intense Atlantic low will move from W Eire to W Scotland today. At the surface, a strong cold front will move east across much of Britain, with a very strong WSW'erly flow following, especially into western parts. Although instability along the cold front is meagre, intense forcing and very strong shear along it suggests a tornado risk with this feature, as well as gusts of 60-70mph, locally higher along exposed coasts.
Following this cold front, a very tight pressure gradient will move in, especially for Wales and NW England. Very strong gusts of 80-90mph, and perhaps 100mph will affect parts of Wales, and NW England. Although these may occur independent of convection (and the risk is already covered by UKMO warnings), convection may enhance gusts, and thus this forecast includes this risk. The flow may be too intense for a tornado risk, but it is not out of the question.
Forecaster: RPK. Quote selectie
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