LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING SIMILAR TRENDS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...THEN DIFFER TOWARD MONDAY. SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS PASSES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF WITH QPF. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
DEEP DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITH SATURATION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. KEPT POPS GOING FOR THIS PERIOD.
BOTH MODELS DO BRING AN INITIAL BAND OF QPF THROUGH THE AREA
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF THEN KEEPS NEXT SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH THE GFS FURTHER NORTH AND MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND QPF ON BOTH
MODELS APPEAR TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOWING A DEEP DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITH
SATURATION. KEPT POPS GOING FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE AREA.
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER GREATLY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS...AND THE GFS KEEPING QPF ACROSS
THE AREA. WENT WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS FOR THIS PERIOD.
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
FOR TEMPERATURES.
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