Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 21 May 2014 06:00 to Thu 22 May 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 20 May 2014 21:20
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 1 was issed for Northern France, BENELUX, Northwestern Germany and Denmark mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and to the lesser degree for tornadoes.
SYNOPSIS
The main macrosynoptic feature will remain in the form of a cut-off low and long-wave trough residing over the eastern Atlantic. Center of the cut-off will move towards western Iberia, with strong mid to upper tropospheric flow covering its southern and eastern flanks. A belt of southerly flow will stretch from northern Africa all the way towards western Scandinavia. With this flow, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is advected northwards. Towards east, a ridge will cover much of the Central Europe and the Mediterranean.
Closer to the surface, center of the low will remain off the coastline of NW Iberia. A wavy frontal boundary will stretch from Spain towards W France, SE England, Denmark and further into Scandinavia. Ahead of it, a WAA regime will continue over much of Western and Central Europe.
... Northern France towards BENELUX and Denmark ...
In the WAA regime, favourably veered vertical wind profiles will yield moderate to strong DLS and enhanced SREH, that could support well organised multi or supercells. Models agree on the CI and destabilisation especially in the late afternoon hours. CAPE will likely stay below 1000 J/kg, increasing towards east of the highlighted area, where steeper mid-level lapse rates are simulated. One downside of the situation might be that initial storms will move towards the more stable (northern) part off the boundary. Especially the right moving cells could survive longer in the unstable airmass. In case that isolated supercells manage to develop, large hail may occur, as well as severe wind gusts and possibly also tornado as LLS will increase towards the evening.
Valid: Wed 21 May 2014 06:00 to Thu 22 May 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 20 May 2014 21:20
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 1 was issed for Northern France, BENELUX, Northwestern Germany and Denmark mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and to the lesser degree for tornadoes.
SYNOPSIS
The main macrosynoptic feature will remain in the form of a cut-off low and long-wave trough residing over the eastern Atlantic. Center of the cut-off will move towards western Iberia, with strong mid to upper tropospheric flow covering its southern and eastern flanks. A belt of southerly flow will stretch from northern Africa all the way towards western Scandinavia. With this flow, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is advected northwards. Towards east, a ridge will cover much of the Central Europe and the Mediterranean.
Closer to the surface, center of the low will remain off the coastline of NW Iberia. A wavy frontal boundary will stretch from Spain towards W France, SE England, Denmark and further into Scandinavia. Ahead of it, a WAA regime will continue over much of Western and Central Europe.
... Northern France towards BENELUX and Denmark ...
In the WAA regime, favourably veered vertical wind profiles will yield moderate to strong DLS and enhanced SREH, that could support well organised multi or supercells. Models agree on the CI and destabilisation especially in the late afternoon hours. CAPE will likely stay below 1000 J/kg, increasing towards east of the highlighted area, where steeper mid-level lapse rates are simulated. One downside of the situation might be that initial storms will move towards the more stable (northern) part off the boundary. Especially the right moving cells could survive longer in the unstable airmass. In case that isolated supercells manage to develop, large hail may occur, as well as severe wind gusts and possibly also tornado as LLS will increase towards the evening.