Eastern France into south-east British Isles, Benelux, and western Germany
A dynamic weather pattern is forecast for eastern France and western Germany. In the wake of the cold front, dry air advection is initially expected. Additionally, clouds and showers reaming from overnights convection may limit low-level heating. However, to the north of another mid-level jet streak that is located across southern France at noon, low-level backing winds are forecast, and a southerly flow will result in moisture increase. Given increasing lapse rates due to DCVA, some CAPE is possible. Storms are forecast to form along the convergence from eastern France to the south-eastern British Isles during the afternoon, spreading north-eastward and clustering.
Main focus of severe weather will be the nose of a low-level jet spreading north across eastern France. Latest GFS indicates 20 m/s winds at 850 hPa, resulting in strong low-level vertical wind shear and curved hodographs (0-1 km bulk shear 15 m/s and SRH near 200 m²/s²). Current thinking is that low-topped supercells can form that move north-eastwards. These storms may be capable of producing tornadoes, while the threat moves from eastern France to the Benelux countries and south-eastern British Isles in the evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts are also not ruled out.
A dynamic weather pattern is forecast for eastern France and western Germany. In the wake of the cold front, dry air advection is initially expected. Additionally, clouds and showers reaming from overnights convection may limit low-level heating. However, to the north of another mid-level jet streak that is located across southern France at noon, low-level backing winds are forecast, and a southerly flow will result in moisture increase. Given increasing lapse rates due to DCVA, some CAPE is possible. Storms are forecast to form along the convergence from eastern France to the south-eastern British Isles during the afternoon, spreading north-eastward and clustering.
Main focus of severe weather will be the nose of a low-level jet spreading north across eastern France. Latest GFS indicates 20 m/s winds at 850 hPa, resulting in strong low-level vertical wind shear and curved hodographs (0-1 km bulk shear 15 m/s and SRH near 200 m²/s²). Current thinking is that low-topped supercells can form that move north-eastwards. These storms may be capable of producing tornadoes, while the threat moves from eastern France to the Benelux countries and south-eastern British Isles in the evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts are also not ruled out.
