http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059637/pdf
Skilful Long Range Prediction of European and North American Winters
Artikel van o.a. Scaife.
Until recently, long range forecast systems showed only modest levels of skill in predicting surface winter climate around the Atlantic basin and associated fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation at seasonal lead times. Here we use a new forecast system to assess seasonal predictability of winter north Atlantic climate. We demonstrate that key aspects of European and North American winter climate and the surface North Atlantic Oscillation are highly predictable months ahead. We demonstrate high levels of prediction skill in retrospective forecasts of the surface North Atlantic Oscillation, winter storminess, near surface temperature and wind speed; all of which have high value for planning and adaptation to extreme winter conditions. Analysis of forecast ensembles suggests that while useful levels of seasonal forecast skill have now been achieved, key sources of predictability are still only partially represented and there is further untapped predictability.
Ik heb het van Netweather forum, ENSO topic.
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79367-enso-discussion/page-10
The paper itself describes the ENSO, QBO, North Atlantic Gyre heat content and Kara sea ice as key teleconnections for the North Atlantic winter, According to them, El Nino, warm subpolar gyre, low Kara Sea ice, and easterly QBO, each tend to favour -ve NAO condition, while the opposite forms contribute to +ve NAO conditions.
UKMO heeft ook een persbericht gemaakt.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2014/long-range-advances
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