.. SE UK, NE / E France, SW / central Germany ...
A dissipating low pressure system over the British Isles which continues eastwards advects warm and unstable air into W / central Europe. A few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE are forecast consistently in the warm sector by the past runs of GFS and ECMWF, at least partly overlapping with 15 - 25 m/s of 0-6 km bulk shear. T/Td is forecast around 20/16 °C for SW Germany which leads to low LCL heights. Convection should fire up in the late morning / early afternoon hours even though there is some subsidence over the central parts of Germany from the upper ridge. Combined with enhanced LL shear and SRH1, this may allow a few tornadoes. Further north, LL shear is weaker but the background wind field should be intense enough to support isolated severe wind gusts mainly from downward transfer of momentum. Local heavy precipitation is possible but fast storm motion should preclude a risk of flooding in most cases.
Over UK, there is very weak LL shear forecast in the afternoon hours but a weak background flow should support some spout-type tornadoes.
Dat terwijl de kaarten wat betreft shear op zijn minst marginaal zijn, toch niet uit te sluiten dus.
Bows verwacht ik zeker niet. Geen goed profiel daarvoor.
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