dat is een lastige vraag, volgens Cohen gaat het meer om de SAI dan de SCE, hoewel hij beide gebruikt.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011GL049626/pdf
"An important question that we have not answered is why the October SAI (Snow Advance Index) is more highly correlated with the DJF AO than the October SCE (Snow Cover Extent) index. One likely reason is that the SAI is limited to latitudes equatorward of 60°N while the SCE index includes all of Eurasia, which has a significant amount of snow cover north of 60°N. Assuming that the high albedo of snow cover is one if not the most important snow characteristic that influences the overlying atmosphere, this would favor the SAI, which is limited to regions that are exposed to a higher sun angle more so than the SCE, in predicting the atmospheric response to snow cover variability. Another possibility is that the SAI is sensitive to the timing of snowfall, where snowfall at the end of the month contributes to higher values of the SAI and snowfall at the beginning of the month contributes to lower SAI values while the monthly?mean SCE is insensitive to the timing of snowfall. A rigorous answer to the question is beyond the scope of this concise Letter and will require more in?depth analysis."
Cohen gaat voor de periode in oktober, sommige weeramateurs stellen dat het gaat vanaf week 39 (22 september 2014 gestart).
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44473-and-we-begin/page-2
Edit
-> Let wel, ook als het allemaal 'goed zou vallen', en we een dikke kans hebben op een flink negatieve AO, dan kan je nog steeds een flutwinter bij ons krijgen.
Ik ben vandaag verder niet online, dus evt. vragen kan ik pas later beantwoorden. Even genieten van de zon/ warmte!
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011GL049626/pdf
"An important question that we have not answered is why the October SAI (Snow Advance Index) is more highly correlated with the DJF AO than the October SCE (Snow Cover Extent) index. One likely reason is that the SAI is limited to latitudes equatorward of 60°N while the SCE index includes all of Eurasia, which has a significant amount of snow cover north of 60°N. Assuming that the high albedo of snow cover is one if not the most important snow characteristic that influences the overlying atmosphere, this would favor the SAI, which is limited to regions that are exposed to a higher sun angle more so than the SCE, in predicting the atmospheric response to snow cover variability. Another possibility is that the SAI is sensitive to the timing of snowfall, where snowfall at the end of the month contributes to higher values of the SAI and snowfall at the beginning of the month contributes to lower SAI values while the monthly?mean SCE is insensitive to the timing of snowfall. A rigorous answer to the question is beyond the scope of this concise Letter and will require more in?depth analysis."
Cohen gaat voor de periode in oktober, sommige weeramateurs stellen dat het gaat vanaf week 39 (22 september 2014 gestart).
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44473-and-we-begin/page-2
Edit
-> Let wel, ook als het allemaal 'goed zou vallen', en we een dikke kans hebben op een flink negatieve AO, dan kan je nog steeds een flutwinter bij ons krijgen.
Ik ben vandaag verder niet online, dus evt. vragen kan ik pas later beantwoorden. Even genieten van de zon/ warmte!
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 28-09-2014 12:35
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