November 6 05:20 PM
The more I have studied this theory, the more I believe the buildup of snow in Siberia is merely a verifying symptom of the cause. The snow does not magically appear and shift the pattern. It is no coincidence that the 2 years in front of this year..2002 and 1976, had large negative MEI's in the years before, followed by a warming.
But here is what I noticed. All the el nino years with high snow covers over this area in October were fairly big winters. They have been much more common of late..not so much in the warm PDO years. The 1972 el nino was a super event, and snowfall was way above normal. The key seems to be MEI bounceback enso events with a Modiki signature.
But the theory this is a cause, rather than a symptom, falls apart when we see winters with little snow( example 1972) and big amounts,, and winters with alot of snow and small Octobers. So where is the link? The link is in the broader picture, that the set up that is part of the natural cycle may be playing out months before to put the snow down, and the natural evolution of the principle drivers of that pattern simply take over.
Of course, this is not good for the people advancing the theory that its the snow cover that is the indicator, for it is a conditional factor and the reason for the snow cover ( the true cause) starts before hand.
Then again it comes down to a spiritual matter to some extent.. Aquinas, Aristotle.. they searched for the unmoved mover to find the diety. To those that worship snow, the search for the unmoved mover is not the snow itself, but what caused it in the first place.
WxBELL
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