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Wat zeggen de modellen over de AO? Want een negatieve AO en zacht winterweer (in W-Europa) hoeven elkaar natuurlijk niet uit te sluiten.
Positieve AO
http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter15v2.php
Just a quick one, sort of a reference for the coming weeks and months but full November update of the EC Seasonal model is now out and it continues the theme from the last few months and seeing it is now November, essentially the EC Seasonal model is predicting a mild, wet and unsettled winter period with a text-book +NAO and +AO pattern across the Atlantic and polar region. Pressure is higher to the south and south-west of the UK and lower to the north and north-west with a broad W or SW'ly type with temps circa +0.5C to +1.5C above average.
The EUROSIP Seasonal model which takes into account the UKMO, NCEP, Meteo-France and ECMWF seasonal data will be out around the 15th, but I don't expect this to be much different as they have both been showing the same thing for some time now. In essence it looks a fascinating winter for a number of reasons and without question it is definitely a case of "seasonal models v signs and signals" this winter. Clearly there will be one outcome. My money is for the signs and signals to come to fruition this year and for the seasonal models to be wrong, but that being said they can't be ignored and won't be ignored at the UKMO I can tell you.
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81494-october-pattern-index-opi-monitoring-winter-season-2014-2015/?p=3067737
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